980
FXUS61 KALY 081748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will keep clouds across the
region today, along with isolated to scattered showers,
especially for areas north of Interstate 90. It will also be
breezy at times. A compact area of low pressure will bring a
period of rain late tonight through Sunday morning, tapering to
scattered showers Sunday afternoon. Cooler than normal
temperatures and a few showers will continue into early next
week as an upper level trough remains nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1045 AM EDT, widely scattered light showers are
ongoing, largely north of I-90, with enhanced cloud cover across
much of the region as an upper shortwave tracks eastward into
New England. Shower coverage may continue to increase through
the remainder of the morning, before diminishing into this
evening as the upper impulse exits to the east.

The main weather concern for today remains potentially gusty
winds developing by this afternoon in areas of higher terrain
and along the favored west-northwest flow corridor from the
Mohawk Valley across northern portions of the Capital Region
and into the Berkshires. Gusts of 25-35 mph remain expected in
these areas, while a few gusts in excess of 40 mph cannot be
discounted. As such, forecast remains on track; see previous
discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0635 AM EDT]...An upper level low across
eastern Canada continues to influence our weather, with an
embedded disturbance currently tracking across the SW
Adirondacks producing scattered showers. Some of these showers
will expand east into the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT
through mid morning, and could extend into the Mohawk Valley and
northern portions of the Capital Region at times.

The upper level low will pivot northward this afternoon,
allowing for some gradual height rises. This should allow for
decreasing coverage of showers from south to north this
afternoon, with a few breaks of sun possibly developing,
particularly in valley areas.

Deeper mixing this afternoon should allow west to northwest
winds to become quite gusty, with gusts of 25-35 mph developing
by mid to late afternoon as mixing depth increases. A few gusts
up to 40 mph could occur near and immediately north of the
Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, especially should
any breaks of sun develop.

Afternoon max temps should reach the lower/mid 70s in valley
areas, with mainly 60s across higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low/mid level ridging will translate across the region
this evening, ahead of a strong upper level disturbance
approaching from the west. This should allow for a period of
generally dry weather early this evening. However, rain should
then expand eastward across the region after midnight as the
disturbance and developing compact low pressure system approach.
A period of steady light to moderate rain is possible prior to
daybreak, especially for areas close to and just north of the
I-90 corridor. Low temperatures mainly in the 50s.

Periods of rain are expected Sunday morning as the upper level
disturbance and compact low pressure system move across the
region. As these systems track east of the region, rain should
taper to scattered showers in the afternoon. Cold air aloft
along with a lingering upper level trough may provide enough
instability for isolated low-topped thunderstorms to occur,
especially areas north of I-90. Small hail and gusty winds could
occur should any thunderstorms develop. Afternoon high
temperatures should reach the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and
65-70 across higher terrain areas. West to northwest winds may
become gusty once again Sunday afternoon, although a bit less in
magnitude compared to today, perhaps reaching 25-30 mph.

Scattered showers should gradually decrease in coverage Sunday
night, although may persist across portions of the SW
Adirondacks in closer proximity some lake enhancement. Otherwise
it will be rather cool with low temperatures in the upper 40s to
lower/mid 50s.

Upper level trough will pivot southeast across the region Monday
into Monday night, bringing more clouds and isolated to
scattered rain showers, especially Monday afternoon. It will
remain cool, with highs in the 60s for most higher elevations,
and lower/mid 70s for valleys. Lows Monday night in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While upper level ridging won`t be too far away (building north/east
across the Great Lakes), the Northeast is still expected to be under
an elongated upper level trough through Tue. Forcing looks to be
limited, so will only mention a slight chance of diurnally driven
showers in the afternoon to early evening. Temperatures will not be
quite as cool as prior days, with highs in the mid 70s for most
valley locations.

The upper level trough finally exits on Wed, with short wave upper
level ridging building east into the area. This will result in dry
conditions and temperatures warning to slightly above normal levels.
On Thu, heights aloft are forecast to flatten out as the flow regime
W-NW, but with a warmer air mass in place. A weak disturbance
embedded in the fast flow aloft could produce some showers/T-storms.
Moisture/forcing look limited, so will just mention isolated
coverage for now.

A more substantial upper level trough and associated surface cold
front are expected to move into the region on Fri, with a better
chance for showers and T-storms. W-SW winds are forecast to
strengthen ahead of the trough/front, so should sufficient
instability develop, will have to monitor for some potentially
stronger storms. Temperatures should continue to be above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through at 06 UTC tonight as mid-level
stratocumulus this afternoon clears out late this afternoon with
just a BKN cirrus deck in its wake through this evening. After
06 UTC, clouds lower with BKN-OVC MVFR ceilings arriving by 08 -
12 UTC as an organized area of steady/moderate rain overspreads
the terminals from northwest to southeast. MVFR ceilings arrive
at GFL and ALB first by 08 - 09 UTC as initially light rain
quickly becomes steady/moderate resulting in MVFR vis by 10 -
12 UTC. MVFR ceilings then push into PSF by 11-12 UTC as light
rain transitions to steady rain by 13 UTC resulting in MVFR vis.
There may be periods of IFR ceilings Sunday morning, especially
at PSF and GFL but not enough confidence to show IFR ceilings
at this point. POU remains south of the steadiest rain and
therefore low end VFR conditions may prevail through much of the
TAF period. Held off on MVFR conditions at this time. Light
rain should push over POU by 12 - 16 UTC but still maintaining
VFR conditions.

Steady rain exits towards the end of the TAF period 15 - 18 UTC
with VFR conditions returning.

Breezy westerly winds sustained 10-18 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt
expected through 00 UTC with the strongest winds expected 19 -
23 UTC as clouds give way to increased sun. Wind speeds decrease
this evening, becoming sustained around 5kts by 02-03 UTC. Winds
around 5kts continue through tomorrow morning as winds shift to
northwest towards the end of the TAF period. Winds shift to
the east and even northeast Sunday morning at PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Picard
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale