574
FXUS64 KAMA 070542
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Northwest flow aloft can be seen in this mornings upper air
sounding, as well as current GOES-16 water vapor imagery. GOES
water vapor paints a bigger picture of the upper level pattern
with an negatively tilted trough located over the Great Lakes
Region and a ridge over the Desert Southwest. At the surface,
northerly winds are observed in the northwestern quarter to
third of the combined Panhandles. Elsewhere southerly winds are
being observed. This is from a stalled cold front, which may play
a role in some afternoon/evening thunderstorms, mainly across
central to eastern portions of the FA.

With PWATs above an inch, dewpoints in the 60s, and H7 theta-e
advection near 340K, there is plenty of moisture available for
some possible thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Especially
along the stalled frontal boundary where some surface convergence
may help if convective temperatures struggle to hit. This mornings
upper sounding from KAMA does depict a dry layer from about H85
to H5, one could say an onion sounding. This will lead to a
possibility of severe wind gusts up to 70 mph, potentially higher.
This morning sounding does give a DCAPE value around 1500 J/Kg.
The best chances for the afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be
along the Canadian Valley southward towards the I-40 corridor.
There is some uncertainty to the westward extent of this activity
and if Amarillo will see any thunder.

A shortwave in the northwest flow aloft is progged to develop and
help spark some storms, but this will be later tonight into
tomorrow morning primarily in the northeastern combined
Panhandles. Overnight the frontal boundary will retreat to the
northeast with easterly upsloping winds across the northern half
of the FA. Surface winds are progged to return to the the south
tomorrow and a LLTR should build into the FA bringing H85
temperatures near 32 degrees C. Wide spread temps in the upper 90s
to triple digits are expected for Friday afternoon because of
this. Another Heat Advisory is expected to be needed again for
PDC.

Later in the day Friday, models are hinting at some shortwaves
moving across the area with semi-zonal flow in place aloft. This
will bring some chances for thunderstorms again, mainly to the
northern combined Panhandles. With high DCAPE values around 1500
to 2000 J/Kg, and MLCAPE values near 1000 J/Kg severe storms are
possible once again with the main threat being damaging winds.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. Mainly Sat
night and again Sun night, with Sun night looking more favorable
for widespread showers and thunderstorms with upsloping easterly
surface winds and the possibility of a stout shortwave trough
moving across.

For Saturday, one last hoorah under the ridge will allow
widespread temperatures in the lower triple digits for much of the
Texas Panhandle. Temperatures across the far northern Texas
Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle are only expected to be in
the upper 90s do to the encroachment of a cold front. As far as
thunderstorm chances go, have stayed with NBM PoPs which gives
widespread 40s across the area going into Sat evening. The cold
front will help, but a shortwave is progged to move across the
area Sat evening as well. Thanks to this front, much cooler
temperatures are in store for Sun, with highs in the 70s to the
north and 80s to the southern FA.

Moisture should not be a problem on Sunday as PWATs approach 200%
of normal. Also, with a much more robust shortwave trough progged
to move through the area, PoPs on Sunday are upwards of 70 for
the southwestern half of the combined Panhandles. For Sunday night
GFS Bufkit soundings have a very tropical look favoring some
decent rain producers.

Some thunderstorms may return Monday afternoon/evening, but after
that conditions look to dry out as another ridge is expected to
build over the area. Tues and Wed are looking mostly dry with
temperatures returning well into the 90s by Wed afternoon.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Thunderstorms may be present this time for DHT and GUY tomorrow
afternoon through the evening. A PROB30 group has been added to
reflect these potential conditions. AMA has been omitted for now,
as thunderstorms appear less likely to hold together further
south. That is still subject to chance after new data arrives for
reassessment tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of the period. Strong winds from the southwest
will occur at all sites this afternoon. Sustained winds could
reach up to 25 kts gusting to 35 kts at times.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               100  73 102  65 /  10  20  10  40
Beaver OK                 101  70  96  62 /  30  30  10  50
Boise City OK             101  63  92  59 /  30  20  20  40
Borger TX                 104  73 105  66 /  10  30  10  40
Boys Ranch TX             104  72 104  66 /  10  20  10  40
Canyon TX                  99  71 102  65 /  10  10  10  40
Clarendon TX               97  72 101  66 /  10  10  10  30
Dalhart TX                102  65  98  61 /  20  20  20  40
Guymon OK                 102  66  95  61 /  20  30  10  50
Hereford TX               101  71 103  65 /   0  10  10  30
Lipscomb TX                98  71 101  64 /  20  30  10  40
Pampa TX                   98  72 101  65 /  10  20  10  40
Shamrock TX                97  71 101  67 /  10  10  10  30
Wellington TX              98  73 103  69 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...55