Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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887 FXUS64 KAMA 060548 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Quiet weather is forecast for today across the Panhandles with temperatures above average and light winds. Similar conditions are forecast for Thursday with the exception being the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the southern CWA during the afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. Upper level ridging remains across the western CONUS this afternoon with surface temperatures mainly in the 80s at the time of this writing. Warm air advection in the low levels is not as strong as it was yesterday which is keeping temperatures a bit cooler for highs today. In other words, it is a fairly nice June day of the Panhandles, albeit a bit on the warm side for this time of year. Center of high pressure moves east tonight through the day tomorrow but ridging will still remain in place across the region. A weak surface cold front is forecast to sweep across the Plains tonight into tomorrow. The front is expected to slow down and potentially stall across the central or southern Texas Panhandle by late morning to early afternoon. WAA out ahead of this feature is forecast to be rather strong, with H850 temperatures potentially reaching the lower 30s C by mid afternoon. With the front in place across the area, more than sufficient daytime heating, and good moisture return, some showers and storms should develop along the surface boundary during the afternoon into the evening hours. Even though the shear and steering flow will be very weak, ample instability exists throughout the column for a few strong to severe storms to develop. The primary hazards should any storms become severe would be large hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Additionally, forecast PWAT values are looking to be above the climatological 90th percentile and near the max for June 6. If this comes to fruition, heavy rainfall would be possible and could lead to localized flash flooding, especially if storms are slow moving. A weak shortwave riding the top of the ridge looks to move down across CO/KS overnight on Thursday and some of the showers/storms generated by this wave could move across the northeastern Panhandles late on Thursday night. The overnight storms are currently not expected to be severe, but there could be some elevated instability to work with so this potential will need to be monitored. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A series of ridge rollers and/or perturbations from the mean H500 NW flow will feature the daily diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms. In particular, a back door cold front during the second half of Saturday will bring the best chances for more robust storms. Even though each day could feature strong to severe storms based off of diurnal trends, Saturday in particular will feature the more notable area of lift near the front. Any severe thunderstorms that can form, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat. With decent PWAT values for June standards, along with training storms, locally heavy rainfall could also produce some flooding concerns that we will have to monitor closely. High temperatures to start the forecast period will be well into the 90s wit ha few location sin the 100-105 range on Friday and Saturday. Some location may need a headline for the impactful temperatures during this time period. After the main front comes through, temperatures drop to below average from Sunday into early next week before moderating to near average at the end of the forecast period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 TAFs will be VFR for the new 06Z period. Flight rules may change however, with the potential for thunderstorm activity at AMA later this afternoon. Enough confidence is present tonight to introduce a PROB30 group from 22Z Thursday to 02Z Friday. For the other sites, thunderstorm chances are lower but it cannot be completely ruled out. For the time being, we have opted to leave mentions out. Otherwise, breezy northeasterly winds will be had at all sites after the front moves through in the afternoon. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 97 65 99 72 / 30 30 10 20 Beaver OK 89 63 99 68 / 10 30 20 30 Boise City OK 88 60 99 63 / 10 20 20 20 Borger TX 99 66 104 73 / 20 20 10 30 Boys Ranch TX 100 65 104 72 / 20 20 10 20 Canyon TX 99 64 99 71 / 30 30 10 20 Clarendon TX 97 66 97 72 / 30 30 10 20 Dalhart TX 93 60 101 66 / 10 20 20 20 Guymon OK 89 61 100 65 / 10 20 20 30 Hereford TX 100 67 101 71 / 30 30 10 20 Lipscomb TX 91 65 97 69 / 20 20 20 30 Pampa TX 94 65 97 71 / 20 20 10 20 Shamrock TX 95 66 97 71 / 30 20 10 20 Wellington TX 99 68 98 72 / 30 30 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...55