647
FXUS64 KAMA 190548
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Today will be hot and dry with temperatures widespread in the
90s, with Palo Duro Canyon possibly reaching the triple digits.
Otherwise, per satellite imagery as of 1:30 PM, there are two areas
of apparent lift: the northeastern combined Panhandles where cumulus
have developed, and northern New Mexico where there is a broader
field of cumulus. There is a very low chance (10%) for a shower to
either move into the northwest from New Mexico, or an even lower
chance (<10%) for a shower to develop in the central Texas
Panhandle. If either case occurs, the very hot and dry conditions
would favor gusty winds and very little to no rain at the surface.

Tonight, low-level moisture will move back into the Panhandle as
surface winds turn southeasterly to easterly. A subtle shortwave
trough embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will approach the
Panhandles later Sunday morning as a surface trough pushes east
through much of the Panhandles. Unsurprisingly, there is
disagreement among guidance regarding how far east the surface
trough will be by late tomorrow afternoon. Nonetheless, forcing
for ascent arrives in the mid to late afternoon, and some CAMs
develop a high-based shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of
eastern Cimarron or Texas county. Should this occur, the the
primary threats would be damaging winds (given around 1700 J/kg
DCAPE) and large hail. These threats would increase as the quality
of low-level moisture increases with eastward extent. Of lower
confidence but still worth mentioning is that potential for a
thunderstorm to develop in the eastern stack of Texas Panhandle
counties. There is weaker forcing and more capping questions in
this area, hence the very low confidence. Should a thunderstorm
develop, it could become severe with damaging winds and large hail
the primary threats. However, the question would then become
whether or not it can mature enough to become severe before moving
into western Oklahoma. Besides the severe thunderstorm threat,
Sunday will likely be hotter than today with Borger and Palo Duro
Canyon favored to reach triple digits.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A little bit going on in the extended. For the most part quiet
weather is expected for the majority of the Panhandles. That being
said, we are still looking at a hot day on Monday with
temperatures likely exceeding 100 degrees in the Palo Duro Canyon
State Park area. So it`s important to take the proper heat safety
precautions, and make sure to protect yourself from heat related
illnesses if your planning on being in the State Park area for
several hours. A weak cold front will knock temperatures back a
bit into the low 90s for highs on Tuesday, but Tuesday night will
get a secondary cold air push which will set highs for the low 80s
on Wednesday. At this time we`ll transition from zonal flow back
to some southwest flow on Wednesday night into Thursday as another
upper level disturbance makes its way in from the Pacific
Northwest. Some return moisture from the Gulf along with a
possible dryline setup will allow for possible severe storms on
Thursday afternoon. If storms can form of the dryline they would
likely be discrete and would likely be severe with all hazards
possible. Right now confidence is very low, as SPC outlook is
further east, but the eastern Panhandles could still see
something. Again, this is a highly conditional severe threat.
Friday, southwest flow ramps up again as the upper trough axis to
the north takes a pendulum swing from southwest to northeast, and
that sets up a pretty good dryslot scenario, for elevated
(possibly critical) Fire Weather. Breezy winds 20-30 mph with RH
values below 10 percent as well as temperatures back in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Winds are expected to continue to gust at the surface for most of
the overnight as a low-level jet sits over the Panhandles.
Potential is present to see gust nearing the 20 to 25 kt mark with
stronger winds to follow tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile to our
north and our east, chances of thunderstorms do remain present
clear through Sunday evening with the arrival of an upper-level
system to our north. However, confidence in any impacts to KGUY
remains low as many models are seeing chances stay very
conditional through out the day. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue to hold for all three terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                57  98  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  57  98  62  91 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              53  93  57  85 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  58 102  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              54 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  54  98  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               60  98  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 51  95  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  53  96  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                54  98  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                60  98  64  92 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   59  99  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                60  99  65  93 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62 100  66  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...11