949
FXUS64 KAMA 081701
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1201 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Outside of elevated fire weather for the southwestern Texas
Panhandle today, quiet weather is forecast for the Panhandles
today and Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and
moreso on Thursday behind a secondary surge of cooler air. Breezy
winds of 15 to 20 mph are forecast for both days.

A cold front is through the entire Panhandles at the time of this
writing. The front is rather weak, with temperatures only
dropping around 5 degrees behind the front. Winds behind the front
are out of the north with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Winds will
decrease over the next few hours and lows will generally drop down
into the 40s.

Zonal flow is expected across the region both today and tomorrow
with low pressure to the north of the forecast area. The north
winds are expected for most of this morning before winds will
increase and become westerly this afternoon. Gusts this afternoon
could get up to the 30 to 35 mph and dry air will remain across
the area, these conditions will lead to elevated fire weather for
the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Slightly cooler air will be in
place for today behind the front so highs will range from the mid
70s north to mid 80s south. Tonight into Thursday morning a
secondary surge of cooler air behind a front will turn winds out
of the northeast through the remainder of the short term forecast.
H850 temperatures for Thursday are forecast to only rise into the
mid teens Celsius so high temperatures will only be in the 60s to
70s across the region, which is slightly below average for this
time of year. Even though breezy conditions are forecast for
Thursday, cooler temperatures and higher humidity values will
mitigate any fire weather concerns for Thursday.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Dry weather will prevail on Friday as another upper level low
pressure system organizes over the vicinity of southern Nevada,
southwest Utah, and northwest Arizona by late Friday afternoon.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms may return to the region as
early as Friday night across far western sections, and then across
most or all of the area Saturday through Monday evening as the
aforementioned upper level low pressure system moves slowly
eastward. The overall precipitation amounts and areal coverage
will depend on how much moisture returns to the area this weekend
into early next week. For now, the NBM pops look reasonable this
far out in time and were included in the grids for Friday night
through Monday night. Medium range models and associated ensembles
were in some semblance of agreement with differences noted in the
finer details surrounding orientation and timing of this next
upper level storm system.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will be either north to northeasterly or westerly as a
surface high to the northeast in KS competes with a surface low
in northeastern NM. KDHT and KAMA may see the winds shift out of
the west with some gust as high as 25 to 30 kts, mainly between
21Z and about 02Z Thursday. Then the cold front with the high
pressure in the north will surge south bringing northerly winds
around 10 to 15 kts for all terminals. Winds will eventually veer
to the east toward the end of this TAF period.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  74  46  73 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  47  75  43  76 /   0  10   0   0
Boise City OK              43  67  41  69 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  50  78  47  77 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  76  46  76 /  10  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  48  74  45  73 /   0  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               51  75  49  74 /   0  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 42  69  40  72 /  10  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  44  71  42  73 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                47  75  46  74 /   0  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                49  76  47  77 /   0  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  74  46  74 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                51  76  49  76 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              52  78  50  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...36