053
FXUS64 KAMA 032235
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
535 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The residual airmass behind an outflow boundary from morning
convection over the eastern Panhandles has since modified,
possibly enough to support thunderstorm potential this afternoon.
A broad sfc low situated over and south of the Panhandles, along
with the retrograding outflow boundary, has allowed southeast
winds to maintain upper 60s to low 70s dew pts, with MLCAPE values
around 3000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts. The
downside to this environment is the lack of better deep layer
moisture, which may cause initial attempts at storm development to
struggle despite this focused area of better fuel and forcing.
18z mesoanalysis shows ample MLCINH still in place from this
morning`s weak activity, but if any updrafts can overcome the
current capping and inhibition in place, one or two strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards may develop over the
eastern Panhandles around 4-7 PM, exiting to the southeast later
this evening. As previously alluded to, confidence in any storms
being sustained this afternoon is still low (~20%), but there
should at least be attempts at initiation as a minor perturbation
near the TX-NM border arrives and invigorates the environment.

Moisture will stick around the eastern Panhandles overnight, and
we could see some patchy dense fog develop as light winds and
clear skies help temperatures cool towards the dew point. Any
fog/low clouds should burn off through the morning, especially as
a weak cold front moves in. While temperatures won`t be
drastically different, guidance continues to come in with cooler
highs behind the front in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
northern Panhandles, while the southern Panhandles stay hot in
the mid to upper 90s. Another trend amongst guidance for tomorrow
is that better quality theta-e advection to the area behind the
front will occur, helping to initiate elevated convection over the
central to eastern Panhandles tomorrow afternoon-evening. Have
therefore introduced 10-20% POPs in case we can manage a few
storms, which could be capable of hail and strong wind gusts.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s the next couple of
nights with occasionally breezy winds behind the front tomorrow
morning.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Wednesday through next Monday weather pattern has a high chance of
being a ridge building over the desert SW and becoming the
dominate feature across the panhandles.

For Wednesday this ridge has a high chance of bringing drier air
to the panhandles leading to fair weather conditions. Under the
ridge the panhandles will still be hot with highs remaining in the
90s.

Then on Thursday the ridge will start to flatten to the NE as a
trough moves across the Great Lakes region. This will shift the
orientation of the ridge such that a NW flow has a high chance of
setting up across the southern plains. This would overall would be
a similar pattern to the one that caused the thunderstorms end of
May to early June. With the pattern shaping up the way it is the
winds will have better chance than not to be from a southerly to
southeasterly direction and weakly gusty. These winds will assist
in bringing moisture to the panhandles. Thursday being the first
day of the new NW flow pattern should see some limited moisture
move into the panhandles leading to a low chance of rain showers
and thunderstorms. As the pattern matures for Friday through
Monday it has better odds than not to bring abnormally high amount
of moisture to the panhandles. This would to a more extensive
amount of rain showers and thunderstorms that could occur anywhere
in the panhandles during the afternoon and evening each day.
There will even be a chance for nocturnal convection if any small
short wave trough pass through during any of the nights. There is
already indication that the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe with the passage of small short wave troughs and dry lines
setting up. Since this upcoming event reflects the current severe
weather setups the confidence that the panhandles will see severe
weather is higher than normal this far out from the event. As the
end of the week into early next week will likely be active with
ample clouds and a slighter weaker ridge the temperatures have a
moderate to high chance of decreasing. This would see the highs
fall into the 80s to 90s across much of the panhandles.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible in the eastern combined
Panhandles early on in this 00Z TAF period. This activity should
stay well east of KAMA, KDHT, and KGUY. VFR conditions are
expected at these three terminals during this 00Z TAF period.
Winds are expected to be southeasterly early on becoming northerly
closer to 18Z around 15 kts or so with gusts up to 25 kts possible
after 18Z. Few to scattered high clouds will be possible through
this period.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  96  63  94 /   0  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  64  89  61  96 /  10  10  10   0
Boise City OK              59  89  57  94 /   0  10   0   0
Borger TX                  65  97  64  98 /  10  20  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              61  97  62  97 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  60  96  61  93 /   0  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               61  95  64  92 /  10  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 57  92  57  95 /   0  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  61  89  58  95 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                60  97  62  95 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                65  91  63  96 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   64  93  64  93 /  10  20  10   0
Shamrock TX                64  95  65  94 /  20  10  20   0
Wellington TX              64  97  67  95 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...36