Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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660 FXUS64 KAMA 292257 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 557 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles later this evening and overnight. This will set up the rounds of showers and storms that may move into the Panhandles tonight. Some storms already initiating off the NM mountains, but those storms are slow moving and likely to collapse as they move off the mountains. There may be a few storms that latch onto the shortwave and that will bring a chance for strong to severe storms overnight. Previous high res models were more bullish on expansive coverage of storms to include Amarillo, however latest 18z HRRR model has now backed off of this and is focused on storms in the northeast Panhandles overnight tonight, and will even linger in the east tomorrow morning. Another more stout shortwave trough is expected to move through on Thursday, and it appears that there will be just enough recovery for storms to develop along the dryline in the western Panhandles early Thursday afternoon (around 19z). Storms will likely start off supercellular along the dryline in the northwest Panhandles and move off the dryline to the southeast. They should congeal into a line segment, becoming mainly a wind threat. As the storms form, all hazards will be possible, but the tornado threat will be challenging as the storms near the dryline will have much higher LCL`s. As storms move to the southeast the LCL`s will lower and better dynamics for tornadoes would be present. That being said as the storms are expected to become more linear, and that will significantly limit that tornado threat for the evening, but not completely remove it (~2% chance). Storms should be out of the area around 10PM to midnight tomorrow night with a small chance for lingering showers storms on the back side overnight. Weber && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the Panhandles Friday through Sunday bringing rounds of showers and storms each day. Storms will have the potential to be severe, and heavy rain will be possible with any storms. The higher probabilities for excessive rainfall, and severe weather fall in the east, with lower chances in the central and western Panhandles. Sunday`s storms may only occur in the northwest as we start to build a ridge over the western Panhandles. By Monday and Tuesday temperatures will be back in the 90s to near 100 in some areas given the high pressure over the Panhandles. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 All three terminals are expected to remain VFR through the early parts of the 00Z TAF period. It will not be until after 06Z when some thunderstorms may impact KGUY, with the potential for KDHT and KAMA more around 09Z to 12Z. Even if storms do not occur for one or more of the TAF sites some MVFR CIGs may be possible during this time leading up to sunrise. There may be a small break in storm activity from 12Z through 18Z then the potential for storms will once again return to the combined Panhandles. For the first round 06Z through 12Z there is still a bit of uncertainty as to whether KAMA or KDHT will be impacted. Winds should remain southerly around 10 to 15 kts pending any thunderstorms that may cause erratic winds. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 61 86 58 78 / 40 50 70 30 Beaver OK 62 84 57 79 / 50 50 90 30 Boise City OK 58 86 54 78 / 50 60 60 40 Borger TX 64 89 60 83 / 40 50 80 30 Boys Ranch TX 62 91 59 82 / 40 50 60 30 Canyon TX 61 87 57 78 / 40 40 60 30 Clarendon TX 61 81 59 77 / 50 50 80 50 Dalhart TX 58 87 53 79 / 30 50 60 30 Guymon OK 60 86 56 79 / 50 60 80 30 Hereford TX 61 91 57 81 / 30 30 50 30 Lipscomb TX 63 84 60 78 / 50 70 90 40 Pampa TX 62 84 59 78 / 40 50 80 40 Shamrock TX 62 82 59 79 / 50 60 90 50 Wellington TX 63 82 60 79 / 50 60 90 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...36