157
FXUS64 KAMA 030920
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
420 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Another kink in the upper level trough will descend southward
into our eastern zones today. Afterwards, our active pattern takes
a bit of a break as heights start to rise on Tuesday and a ridge
in the upper levels begins to develop.

The rest of tonight... A southeastward propagating MCS is exiting
southwest Kansas and entering into portions of northwest
Oklahoma, but the western flank of the system looks to also impact
the far northeastern counties of our CWA. The potential for this
system to be severe is still on the table tonight, as the low
level jet is still quite strong in the area. Our primary hazard of
concern with this complex would be strong winds, but heavy
rainfall cannot be excluded. Meanwhile further to the south, fog
has settled in and is slowly expanding across the southeastern
Texas Panhandle. The fog appears to be generally patchy and dense
in some areas. In very isolated locations, this may affect travel
on the roads. By sunrise conditions area expected to improve.

Later on today, higher dewpoints are expected to hold in the
eastern Panhandles. Even up to 70 degrees according to some of the
guidance. Given the time of year, high CAPE values will be
present. However, the forcing mechanism for thunderstorms will be
quite weak. Our surface low is forecast to be on top of the
Panhandles this afternoon, and a dryline will not be active until
the evening and overnight hours were the gradient will finally
sharpen. Thunderstorms should still be able to hit convective
temperatures and pulse up during peak diurnal heating, but they
could still run into some inhibition. Especially in areas were
clouds are slower to erode throughout the morning. If thunderstorms
are able to overcome these limiting factors, (as indicated by
some of the latest 00Z and 06Z CAMs suggest), then they could
quickly become severe. Modest 0-6 km bulk shear between 30-40 kts
and steep 8-9 C/km lapse rates should allow for discrete storms
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out particularly
in the southeast Texas Panhandle where better low level wind shear
and lower LCL heights should be present. This activity would
initiate in the late afternoon and quickly move east. By the night
time hours, the initial storms will have moved into western
Oklahoma but additional development cannot be ruled out at this
time as the dryline will be retreating west and favorable
conditions are in place for elevated storms.

Tuesday... As the ridge prepares to build back in, a quieter
forecast is expected. With 90`s area wide and mostly sunny skies.
Guidance still diverges somewhat on how hot we will become, and if
100`s should be introduced to areas other than the Palo Duro
Canyon. Therefore, we have left NBM temperatures as is until a
better consensus is met.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For Wednesday through Thursday afternoon, generally dry weather
is foreseen as upper level ridging prevails over the area. Above
normal temperatures are anticipated across the region most periods
from Wednesday through Sunday. The threat for showers and thunderstorms
is forecast to return to the OK and TX Panhandles Thursday night
through Sunday as medium range deterministic models and corresponding
ensembles continue to suggest that some semblance of northwest
flow aloft may develop. NBM temperatures and pops look reasonable
based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were included in
all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

TAFS are VFR through the new 06Z period, and thunderstorms are not
in the forecast at any of the terminal sites for tomorrow
afternoon. The current forecast will keep the activity in the
eastern Panhandles at this time. Winds will be breezy tonight with
low level wind shear possible at GUY through 09Z. Afterwards,
winds will be mostly light through tomorrow ranging from 5-15 mph
from various directions.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  62  96  64 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  92  63  91  61 /  10  10  10   0
Boise City OK              92  59  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  99  65  97  63 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              97  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  96  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               95  61  97  65 /  10  10   0  10
Dalhart TX                 94  58  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  92  60  90  59 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                98  61  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                93  64  94  64 /  10  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   94  63  94  64 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                94  63  97  66 /  20  20   0  10
Wellington TX              97  63  99  67 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...55