738
FXUS64 KAMA 030610
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
110 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Another round of rain showers and thunderstorms remain on tap for
the panhandles as ample moisture and instability remain over the
area. Currently a dry line is forming in the western panhandles
to the west of Amarillo which coupled with old outflows from this
morning should act as the point of initiation for the rain showers
and thunderstorms. The start time for these is likely to be during
the mid to late afternoon hours as heating maximizes and a trough
passes across the region. There is indications that a cap is also
forming over the region which will help to limit some of the
convection allowing for more isolated thunderstorms to occur. Any
thunderstorms that occurs today may turn into supercells as the
environment shows current shear values of 30 to 40 kts and cape of
3500 to 5000 j/kg powerful. This would support large hail
formation and damaging winds with even a tornado or two being
possible. The moisture amounts are indicative that at least
isolated flash flooding may occur as rain rates from the strongest
storms can be very high. The rain showers and thunderstorms will
progress with the trough in a W to E fashion across the
panhandles through the evening. They may end early in the SE as
convection this morning could have produced a more stable
environment there. The moisture and instability will shift ever
eastward so be the late evening to overnight hours the rain
showers and thunderstorms are likely to depart the area.

Monday should see mainly fairer and drier conditions as the
moisture will have shunted off to the east. There will still be a
very low chance that enough moisture is retained in far eastern
panhandles to spark off a rain shower or thunderstorm. Even if
this moisture is retained the overall environment is likely to
become caped making it even harder for rain showers and
thunderstorms to form. Given the very low chance and the cap these
rain showers and thunderstorms are currently not reflected within
the forecast. Otherwise it will be a hot day with lighter winds
not atypical for summer.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tuesday will be on the hot side behind a weak front as a sfc low
dips south in the wake of an upper trough. A northerly breeze will
keep highs cooler in the north, but strong daytime heating should
still take place through the day. Current NBM guidance has highs
ranging from low 90s in the northern Panhandles to upper 90s
around 100 degrees in the southern Texas Panhandle. While this
gradient is likely to exist, some guidance suggests temperatures
will ultimately be a few degrees cooler or at least shunted
further south. Regardless, warm conditions in the 90s are expected
Tue-Thu with upper level ridging in place.

It still looks like we could be greeted with chances of showers
and storms once again later this week towards the weekend. While
the broad synoptic pattern looks to favor continued ridging,
latest suites of model data continue to hint at moisture return
and subtle perturbations within northwest flow capable of
diurnally driven convection Fri-Sun. Details are still unclear so
check back as changes to the long term outlook are made.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

TAFS are VFR through the new 06Z period, and thunderstorms are not
in the forecast at any of the terminal sites for tomorrow
afternoon. The current forecast will keep the activity in the
eastern Panhandles at this time. Winds will be breezy tonight with
low level wind shear possible at GUY through 09Z. Afterwards,
winds will be mostly light through tomorrow ranging from 5-15 mph
from various directions.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                96  63  98  65 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  93  64  93  62 /  10   0  10  10
Boise City OK              91  59  91  59 /  10   0   0  10
Borger TX                  98  65 100  67 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              97  62  99  64 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  96  61  98  64 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               95  63  98  67 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 93  56  94  60 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  92  61  93  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                97  61 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                93  65  95  65 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   95  64  96  65 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                95  63  98  67 /  10  10   0  10
Wellington TX              96  64 100  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...55