125
FXUS63 KAPX 121853
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
253 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances of showers and storms tonight

- Marginal threat of severe storms over parts of the area on Thursday

- Increasing heat and humidity Sunday into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave near the Arrowhead of Minnesota will sharpen as it slides
southeast toward the western lakes tonight.  A surface cold front
will trail this lead upper waves, reaching central Wisconsin by
Thursday morning.  An expanding area of pre-frontal moisture will
spread into northern Michigan tonight, resulting in increasing
chances of showers/storms.  Cold front sweeps through northern
Michigan later Thursday, with moisture, instability and low level
convergence maximizing precipitation chances over eastern parts of
our area.  Some of the storms on Thursday could be severe with hail
and wind the main threat.

Forecast Details:

The tail end of a shortwave sliding north of our area this evening
will bring a few showers (thunder?) to eastern upper Michigan.  More
widespread activity expected later tonight with deeper moisture
associated with the arrival of a stronger wave and associated cold
front.

Increasing isentropic ascent tonight with deep layer moisture
advection ahead of the upstream wave. A developing 45+ kt low level
jet will aid in pushing more shower/storm activity into our area. I
would expect showers/storms to develop over western upper Michigan
and Wisconsin later this evening, pushing east-southeast across
northern Michigan after midnight.  Still some question marks about
how much this activity will hold together as it leaves the more
favorable instability area to our west but sufficient low level
convergence, deep layer moisture advection and elevated instability
of a few hundred joules should be sufficient to produce
showers/storms across much of the area. I don`t think there is much
of a severe threat with this activity tonight although some isolated
gusty winds possible if we can get a strong enough updraft into that
elevated instability layer.  Mild temperatures tonight, generally in
the 60s (some 50s north of the bridge).

Thursday`s weather brings a fair number of question marks. Pre-
frontal activity from overnight will be exiting during the morning
hours with lingering showers/storms ending.  Likely a "quieter"
period through midday with subsidence behind this first feature.
Some drying behind this pre-frontal wave with deepest moisture plume
laying down from northeast lower into central Michigan. Increasing
mid level lapse rates with MUCAPES approaching 1500 j/kg south and
east of a line from Alpena to West Branch during the afternoon
hours. Sufficient mid level shear to help organize any activity.
that develops.  With all the aforementioned pre-frontal activity, it
will be difficult to pinpoint best convective chances with left over
boundaries possibly serving as initiation points. The primary
cold front will slide through eastern upper into northern lower during
the late afternoon hours. Isolated/scattered shower/storm
activity is likely with this boundary as it pushes south. So a
bit of a convoluted pattern with shower/storm activity exiting
during the morning, some additional showers/storms pre-frontal
over northern lower during the afternoon, with at least some
isolated/scattered activity aligned more closely with the front
late in the day. Widespread highs in the 80s on Thursday, 70s
eastern upper.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

A shot of cooler air moves in for Friday followed by increasing
ridging induced heat and humidity for much of the remainder of the
long term forecast.

Details:

Noticeably cooler and less humid conditions Thursday night through
Friday night with surface high pressure moving into the region.
Looking like a very chilly night Friday night due to nearly calm
winds and mainly clear skies with lows dipping into the upper 30s
and 40s. Can`t totally rule out a touch of frost in low lying colder
spots but not something that will be included in the forecast just
yet. Seasonably warm on Saturday with highs generally in the mid and
upper 70s. This will be followed by a building East Coast ridge
Sunday into early next week. This pattern is expected to lead to
increasing heat and humidity. The one thing that has the potential
to disrupt the heat would be possible mesoscale convective complexes
(mcs) riding over the top of the ridge. A cold front likely reaches
the region on or about Wednesday which could increase the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms as well eventually cool off
temperatures. Highs Sunday ranging from the mid 70s across eastern
upper to the mid 80s across northern lower. We will then likely see
highs of well into the 80s, with some low and mid 90s possible
Monday and especially Tuesday (in advance of the front).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Upper wave and associated cold front will approach the Great
Lakes tonight, with mid level clouds increasing along with the
threat for showers/storms. Areas of MVFR cigs possible after
midnight into early Thursday before drier air moves in with
clearing skies. LLWS developing at KMBL, KTVC and KPLN later
tonight as winds ramp up aloft from the southwest. Surface winds
becoming gustier late tonight into the day on Thursday.
Additional showers/storms possible on Thursday, especially
during the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JK