396
FXUS63 KAPX 101703
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
103 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool, with at least some frost expected tonight.

- Watching possible severe chances for Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Inherited forecast this morning remains in excellent shape with
the vast majority of northern Michigan under lots of sunshine.
Primary focus moving forward will be the potential for at least
patchy frost tonight -- primarily across the typically cooler/
interior locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Large area of Canada originated surface high pressure building
southeast into the northern Great Lakes early this morning, with its
upper level parent lurking a bit further upstream across the
northern Plains into the prairie lands of southern Canada. Attendant
deep layer subsidence and dry air advection taken their collective
toll on low clouds, with a distinct clearing line building south
into eastern upper Michigan. Temperatures continue to run at least a
few degrees below normal, with current readings dropping into the
40s across a good portion of the area.

Surface high pressure will continue to build southeast, centering
directly across the Northwoods later today through tonight. This
sets the stage for continued clearing and maintenance of below
normal temperatures.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing any frost potential tonight.

Details:

Skies will continue to clear into this morning, with some scattered
shallow cumulus likely later this morning and afternoon. Despite
plenty of sunshine, overhead cool airmass will only support highs
ranging through the 60s (perhaps some areas making a run at 70 down
near Saginaw Bay). Perfect conditions expected tonight to deliver an
excellent nocturnal temperature response...with clear skies, light
winds, and an increasingly dry low level environment. Little doubt
much of the interior will make a run into the mid and upper 30s by
early Tuesday morning...with even some of our traditional ice box
locations possibly dipping into the lower 30s. Definitely not out
of the question for the need for frost advisory headlines, but will
punt that decision to the day crew for better geographical placement
     if one is indeed needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper level heights continue to trend
up Tuesday, allowing temperatures to reach back near seasonal.
Mostly sunny skies and light winds will likely allow a lake breeze
to form, which could slightly cool coastal areas in the afternoon
hours. A quick moving shortwave could bring some mid to upper level
moisture to the state late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. PW values aren`t particularly impressive, and saturation
will have to work its way to the surface. Most global models want to
weaken the shortwave as it approaches western MI as well. This leads
to higher confidence in some light rain but mostly clouds into
Tuesday morning. Depending on how much moisture will reach the
surface and be available Wednesday afternoon, slight chances exist
for an isolated towering CU or two to grow into a rain shower and/or
thunderstorm. Better chances for sufficient instability for
thunderstorms is Thursday afternoon. A surface low and and upper
level trough will move east over the US/CA border near MN early
Thursday. A trailing front will possibly move over northern MI
Thursday midday/early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the 60s will
possibly be advected ahead of the boundary. This will lead to
chances for decent instability over the state. Healthy shear could
allow storms to organize as they move across the CWA. Northerly
winds build in early Friday with a second boundary, which will
briefly cool temperatures down before they trend warm for next
weekend.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: At this time, models are
still trying to resolve key features that would lead to a more
favorable environment for severe weather Thursday. The elements that
have more confidence are the moisture advection and some wind shear
present Thursday. The uncertain parts are timing of when the fronts
will pass (first boundary from the west and the second from the
north early Friday morning), and where that forcing will be
strongest. Global models depict a stronger cluster of storms
(potentially MCS) over southern MI, with more stronger storms north
of the U.P. This would lead to less coverage over northern lower MI
with some decent coverage over Eastern Upper. As has been the case
lately, there are many factors ahead of Thursday. We will be
watching how things materialize.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR through the period with some lingering northwest gustiness this
afternoon giving way to calm winds overnight as high pressure
settles overhead. Some wisps of high clouds increase toward the
very tail end of the TAF period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MJG