Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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774 FXUS63 KAPX 081038 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 638 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain returns late morning/early afternoon. - High pressure leads to dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. - Next chance of rain and perhaps some thunder Wednesday. - Potential for some lingering shower and thunder chances Thursday and beyond as warmer temperatures return to northern Michigan. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Subtle, low-amplitude ridging embedded in the mid/upper jet draped across the northern CONUS will slide east of the Great Lakes this morning as an embedded shortwave/jet max punches overhead later this afternoon and evening. Forcing generated by this feature aloft will help support a weak, elongated cyclone that looks to work from west to east across the lower peninsula today into Sunday morning. Forecast Details: Widespread rain returns -- Primary focus of the short term will be the return of widespread light rain from the west later this morning. Initially dry profiles are expected to saturate from the top down with time as the aforementioned cyclone and associated forcing work into the area. As profiles saturate, rainfall may initially struggle to reach the ground. Regardless, rainfall is expected to spread across the majority of northern Michigan through this afternoon and into this evening. Additional showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two may pop up behind the main slug of rainfall late this evening and overnight. Otherwise, cooler-than- average temperatures are in store once again this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s for most. Overnight lows look to dip into the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Longwave troughing is set to shift its way eastward as ridging intrudes from the plains. Surface high pressure will induce a drying pattern, scouring out pesky moisture and resulting in minimal (if any) shower chances Sunday. Decreased cloud cover will be the rule as we progress from Monday (which will feature a chilly-for-June northerly breeze) into Tuesday, with temps recovering from the 50s and 60s Sunday into the 70s by Tuesday, with cool to even chilly nights Sunday and Monday night (could see some upper 30s Monday night, frost not anticipated at this juncture). Another wave passes through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with associated surface low pressure progged to pass north of Lake Superior. Cold frontal boundary passing through Wednesday looks to spark the next rain chances. Beyond then, zonal flow beneath deeper ridging sets in. While this garners warmer temperatures (potentially into the 80s Thursday and beyond), some evidence of an active convective pattern to our west may lead to some decaying convective processes leaking into the region at times to close out the week. Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation Chances: Rain chances set to be on the decrease Sunday as cooler and drier air works into the region. Could be just enough diurnal heating to spark off a shower during the day, but overall, thinking a majority of the region holds dry to close out the weekend. Attention turns to the advancing wave and associated low pressure / cold frontal boundary progged to pass through the region some time late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Best chances for this to amount to much will be if the front passes through later in the day Wednesday, allowing for some instability to build, which should generate showers and thunder. Not an overly strong signal for severe weather at this time with this system. Rain chances later in the week will be heavily dependent on how convection evolves upstream in the Plains, so some variation in the forecast for Thursday and beyond is certainly on the table between now and then. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 637 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan this morning before some areas step down to MVFR CIGs by early to mid afternoon, beginning from west to east as light rain spreads across the area. Any MVFR CIGs are expected to lift back to VFR this evening. West to west-southwest winds around 5-10 kts are expected today with gusts to 15-20 kts at times. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...DJC