225
FXUS61 KBGM 301807
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
207 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool but otherwise fine day is expected across the region.
Tonight will get quite chilly, with lows dipping into the middle
to upper 30s in places. Dry conditions and a steady warming
trend will commence Friday and Saturday. Except for a few
showers in western areas Sunday, quiet and warm weather will
continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
925 AM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. Updated current
temperatures with a blend of observations and latest guidance.
The challenge of the day will be assessing the chances for frost
tonight. With current guidance showing unfavorable temperatures
for frost, this morning`s low temperatures were slightly cooler
in some higher terrain areas. With calm winds and clear skies
tonight, we`re prime for radiational cooling again, which
increases chances for slightly lower minimum temperatures
overnight tonight, but chances are still low, and our confidence
of frost development is also low at this time. We`ll keep
monitoring changes in guidance through the day for the afternoon
update.


410 AM Update...

Steady rain continues across Sullivan and Pike Counties early
this morning, but the well-defined back edge of rain will push
east of the area shortly after daybreak (roughly 7 AM to clear
the whole CWA).

Farther west, clearing skies and rapidly dropping temps have
allowed for valley fog to develop south of the Finger Lakes,
especially Steuben and Chemung Counties. More could work its way
east into Tioga and Broome Counties before dawn, though time is
running short for any dense fog to develop.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail today, but temperatures will
still remain on the cooler side, with mid to upper-60s common,
though Scranton and perhaps Syracuse could push the 70 degree
mark. Continued drier conditions, clear skies, and light winds
will lead to strong radiational cooling Thursday night into
Friday morning. We`ve managed to drop to at least 41 at Ithaca
and Cortland so far this morning, and conditions look more
favorable for cooling tonight. Expect upper-30s to lower-40s for
lows tonight, with a few spots dropping into the mid-30s.
There`s slight chance for frost, especially Delaware County, but
will let the day shift scrutinize the risk some more before
considering headlines. Valley fog is also likely to develop
again and be a little more widespread late tonight into Friday
morning.

Friday itself looks to be mostly sunny with temperatures
beginning to tick upwards, back to the 70s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM update...

High pressure will be in control on Saturday with a surface cold
front and supporting upper wave moving in on Sunday. With warm core
ridging squarely overhead, Saturday looks to be a pristine day with
full sunshine and above normal temperatures. Dry air and clear skies
begin Saturday night with radiational cooling expected to be strong.
Thus, leaning on adjusting the NBM guidance closer toward its tenth
percentile for the overnight minimum temperature. Increasing sky
cover late may temper the cooling as compared to the previous few
nights, thus expecting mainly lower-mid 50s instead of dropping well
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM update...

The general pattern during this period indicates high pressure
moving east and offshore with warmer southerly flow developing ahead
of a slowly approaching frontal boundary through Wednesday. A deeper
low pressure system will form over the northern Plains and move into
the Great Lakes region by Thursday. The higher confidence in
rainfall is actually during the Thursday time period where synoptic
features moving into the area are more clear cut in the models with
good support from ensemble guidance. The earlier part of the week is
much more uncertain with deterministic global models offering up
weak forcing and limited moisture resulting in generally dry
solutions while several ensemble members appear to be wetter.
Generally accepting the NBM mean guidance in this time frame with
lowering modifications to the PoPs in deference to the very dry
determininistic runs. Overall, the forecast will have low chance
probabilities with broad timing as any weak upper level features are
difficult to identify and time. Think there will be plenty of dry
hours each day.

Temperatures will gradually warm above normal with most areas in the
lower 80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Consistent VFR conditions across Central NY and NE PA will
continue through the rest of the TAF period, with possible
exceptions to ELM and ITH. Current gusty north-northwesterly
winds will taper off this evening, and become calm overnight.

Fog development is possible at ELM and ITH, but guidance
suggests probabilities are low for ITH, and slightly higher for
ELM. We decided to include the trend of potential fog
development for ELM heading into the early morning hours, but
with confidence lower for ITH, we decided to hold off for now.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...KL/MPH
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...