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000
FXUS61 KBGM 160618
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
218 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure controls the weather pattern today, bringing
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. The weather pattern
changes Wednesday as the next low pressure system moves into the
region, bringing rain showers to the area Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
215 AM Update...

Clear skies across the region tonight, should continue through
the day. Our area is sitting between a trough to our NE and a
ridge to our SW. This puts us in NW flow with cool, dry air from
Canada moving over the region today. Areas east of the Finger
Lakes and north of the Southern Tier should see temperatures
today in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warm air from the ridge is
expected to poke its way into the Finger Lakes and NEPA, pushing
afternoon highs into the low to upper 60s. The NW flow today
should also mix the lower atmosphere pretty well, pushing
dewpoints into the upper 20s during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday night, the surface high will slide eastward, bringing
low level ENE winds that will keep the colder air in place for
one more night. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to
upper 30s across the area, with low 40s in the Wyoming Valley.

The weather pattern changes Wednesday as the high retreats to
the east and a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes. The surface
low associated with this shortwave will be very mature, pushing
a weakened warm and occluded front through the area. Rain
showers are expected to develop along this frontal system,
moving into the western Twin Tiers by late morning. Showers
should push to the NE as the day progresses, with much of the
area seeing rain by late afternoon. The modified airmass
associated with the frontal system combined with the clouds and
rain should keep temperatures for most of the area in the mid
50s. The Mohawk Valley and Tug Hill could see low 60s thanks to
more sunshine and the late arrival of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A slow moving warm front will pass through CNY/NEPA Wednesday
night. With and ahead of the front will be rain showers. A cold
front will pass through late Thursday with more showers. The
models have slowed down both fronts. Wednesday morning some
sunshine before the rain moves in will push temperatures into
the upper 50s and lower 60s. The rain moves into the central
southern tier and Bradford County midday. Likely to cat pops
will be across the area Wed afternoon through Thursday. Total
rain amounts will stay under an inch. Lows Wednesday night fall
into the 40s to around 50. Highs Thursday will only get into the
upper 40s and 50s with rain and clouds. Thursday will also be
breezy as winds increase to 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM Update...

This period will continue to be unsettled as a broad upper level
trough moves over the area. A cold front with rain showers will
move through Friday night followed by northwest winds and more
showers. Saturday into Saturday evening. Saturday it gets cold
enough for some snow to mix in across the highest terrain.

Sunday into Monday looks mainly dry but first with the northwest
flow some showers could linger, then several waves along a front
lifts north into the mid Atlantic states. The lows along the
front could push showers north into NEPA and Sullivan County NY.

Temperatures from the upper 50s to the mid 60s Friday fall into
the 50s Sunday then recover a little Monday. Lows in the low and
mid 40s Friday night fall into the 30s Saturday night and Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the TAF
period as high pressure overhead will keep conditions clear and
calm. Boundary layer winds are expected to continue through the
overnight hours, with 10-15kts blowing out of the NW a few
hundred feet above the surface. This should mix the atmosphere
enough to keep fog from forming. RME is currently the only
terminal with a dewpoint depression low enough (4), that if
winds go calm for a few hours, some patchy fog could form in
area. Confidence is way too low to include this in the TAF
though.


Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

Saturday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JTC