110
FXUS61 KBGM 311056
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
656 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly start to the morning, temperatures will begin a
steady warming trend today, with most areas reaching well into
the 70s. Dry conditions will continue through Saturday, though a
few showers are possible on Sunday. Warm and quiet weather will
return for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM Update...
Ideal conditions for radiational cooling this morning has
brought a few sites down into the mid-30s, mainly in hollows and
valleys south of the Finger Lakes, and across much of Chenango
and Delaware Counties as well. Will keep the Frost Advisory
going as a couple degrees of additional cooling is possible
between now and sunrise.

A sprawling surface high centered over the lower Great Lakes
will keep fair conditions in place through the period, though
overnights tonight into Saturday morning are expected to be a
few degrees warmer than today. High temperatures will also begin
a steady warm-up beginning today, with most areas reaching well
into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM update...

High pressure will continue to move east and out to sea Saturday
night. This then leaves the door open for a weak shortwave to move
into the region by Sunday with cloud cover increasing ahead of it
Saturday night. This shortwave will bring showers and potentially
thunderstorms to the region through at least Sunday night. At this
time, models are showing little for instability and shear, so severe
storms are not expected. Coverage of these showers and storms does
remain somewhat uncertain despite being just a few days out.
Solutions similar to the GFS keep coverage limited to mainly NEPA
and Catskills whereas solutions more like the ECMWF are a bit more
widespread across the region.

Temperatures Saturday night will be mild, only falling into the 50s.
Thanks to cloudy skies and showers for the second half of the
weekend, temps will only climb into the 70s though some locations
may struggle to get out of the 60s. The lows for Sunday night will
be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 AM update...

A upper-level ridge will build into the region early next week,
though a couple of stray showers south of the Twin Tiers may linger
around on Monday. With surface high pressure in control, quiet
conditions are expected until late Tuesday. Ensemble guidance
continues to bring in some showers for Tuesday but deterministic
guidance are trending drier, similar to the last 12 to 24 hours.
While NBM mean PoPs were favored, they were reduced for Tuesday
there is a good chance conditions will be drier if this trend in
guidance continues. Beyond Tuesday, the forecast remains uncertain.
During midweek, a low pressure system develops in the Upper Midwest.
With it, a cold front will extend north-south from the Canadian
border down into the South. Ahead of it, some showers may develop
Wednesday over portions of the Northeast. As a result, chance PoPs
are forecasted for Wednesday. Shower chances increase Wednesday
night into Thursday as this frontal system begins to move in from
the west. With some instability, afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will trend warmer through the first couple days of this
forecast period. The warmest day will be Tuesday with highs in the
80s. The midweek period will be slightly cooler. Nightly conditions
will be mild with temps only falling into the 50s and 60s.&&

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the period, with light
winds prevailing.

Outlook...

Late Friday Night through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR conditions.


Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ022-024-
     044>046-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...ES/MPH