386
FXUS61 KBGM 071439
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1039 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop late this morning through the afternoon hours. This
showery pattern will continue through the weekend, with drier
weather expected by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1035 AM Update...

Convection is beginning to move into the western Finger Lakes
currently, ahead of a semi-organized cluster of showers and
storms over W NY. Several CAMS have keyed in on this area of
convection and develop it further as it treks east across the
CWA through this morning and early afternoon. Seems reasonable,
and made tweaks to the PoP grids to reflect this. While there
will likely be some breaks in the wake of the organized cluster
of storms, still expect scattered showers outside of that area,
and gradually shower coverage will fill back in later in the
afternoon and early evening.

Could see some gusts 35-45 mph with some of the stronger storms,
but severe limits are not expected to be tested.

645 AM Update...

Clouds are moving over the area and should remain in place for
most of the morning. Showers and thunderstorms remain on track
to start to develop in the late morning hours. Guidance is
trying to show CAPE values between 500-700 j/kg north of the
Southern Tier, but with the cloud cover in place, it will be
hard to see this much instability. Mid-level lapse rates are
steepening a bit thanks to cooler air aloft moving into the
region which will help thunderstorm chances, but if storms to
develop, they will be isolated. The best chance for storm
development will be at precip onset as after rain falls,
instability should really dissipate as surface temps fall. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.


330 AM Update...

Clearing tonight has allowed some valley fog to develop over the
western Southern Tier and eastern Mohawk Valley, which should
stick around into sunrise. Quiet weather conditions are expected
across the area during the morning hours.

Active weather returns for the afternoon as the upper level low
slowly continues its trek east out of the Great Lakes and into
the region. A shortwave will rotate through the region during
the afternoon hours, bringing lift associated with vorticity
advection that will be matched up well with diurnal heating.
This will allow for afternoon rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms to develop across the region. Thunderstorm
development will be limited as model soundings show very weak
CAPE thanks to cloud cover, surface CAA and a weak mid-level
inversion, but cannot be ruled out. Showers last though the
afternoon and will fizzle out as we loose diurnal heating.
Temperatures today will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Overnight, westerly winds providing a long fetch across Lake
Ontario combined with CAA over the region will bring some lake
effect rain showers across areas north of the Mohawk Valley. It
is usually not the right time of year to see this occur, but the
lift from the trough overhead combined with the long fetch of
cool air over the lake will provide enough moisture and lift to
get scattered showers to move off the lake and into Oneida
county. Northern parts of the county could see up to 0,25in of
rain during the overnight hours. Temps across the region will be
much cooler than the past several nights, falling into the upper
40s to low 50s.

Saturday should stay mostly dry as we get some weak ridging
building in from the SW, with showers limited to Oneida county
down to the northern Catskills as the ridge`s influence won`t
reach that far. Temps Saturday remain in the upper 60s to mid
70s across the area..

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update:

A shortwave will approach the area from the west Saturday night,
which will bring another round of showers the second half of the
night, especially west of I-81 in Central NY. This will be
after a mainly dry evening in between systems. Skies will be
partly cloudy to start, before clouds increase with this
approaching shortwave. Low temperatures are expected to mainly be
in the 50s.

This shortwave quickly moves through the area on Sunday, which
will bring showers to the area, especially in the morning. By
the afternoon, cyclonic flow will bring additional scattered
showers, mainly in Central NY. Chances for showers decrease
southward with just slight chance/low-end chance afternoon PoPs
for the Twin Tiers into the rest of Northeast PA. Also cannot
rule out a rumble of thunder in the afternoon, but limited
instability will keep this chance on the low side. Otherwise, it
will be on the cooler side with highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Cyclonic flow will continue Sunday night, but with the loss of
daytime heating, chances for showers will be diminishing. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Another shortwave trough digging into the region will bring
another chance for scattered showers on Monday. This will also
bring cool conditions, with highs only in the lower 60s to near
70. Showers taper off Monday night with the loss of daytime
heating and the shortwave moving east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update:

With the trough located just east of our area on Tuesday, there
still could be some isolated showers around, but the majority
of the area will likely be dry with partly to mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures on Tuesday likely return closer to normal
with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Forecast uncertainty then increases for Wednesday/Thursday with
significant differences in the model guidance. For example, the
GFS develops a rather strong area of low pressure for this time
of the year and even a secondary coastal low. Should this
scenario pan out, a widespread steady rainfall would be
possible. However, this solution is currently an outlier with
most other solutions indicating zonal flow, or even weak
ridging and mainly dry conditions. Due to this high degree of
uncertainty this far out, PoPs are no higher than low-end
chance right now.

Temperatures look to be on a warming trend for
Wednesday/Thursday, although this could change if the wetter
solution pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the morning
hours as fog at ELM should lift shortly after 8am. Another round
of afternoon rain showers will occur across the region. Guidance
is suggesting the best chance for thunderstorms will be at the
onset of showers in the late morning/early afternoon at
ITH/SYR/RME. MVFR conditions could occur in these storms, with
VSBY having the best chance of being impacted. Once the initial
storms pass, instability decreases and showers remain. BGM does
not have as high of a chance for TSRA so it was left out of the
TAFs but showers could bring MVFR conditions. AVP should see
some showers but confidence to put showers at the terminal was
too low so VCSH was used here.

Showers dissipate across the region by early evening except for
RME/SYR where late effect showers will continue over the area
through the overnight hours with MVFR ceilings. ITH could also
see some MVFR ceilings overnight as lake clouds reach the area.


Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief
restrictions likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC