237
FXUS61 KBGM 310803
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
403 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly temperatures tonight into the middle 30s to low 40s. Dry
conditions and a steady warming trend will commence Friday and
Saturday. Except for a few showers in western areas Sunday,
quiet and warm weather will continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 PM Update...

Clear skies have settled in for most of the region with a
scattered deck remaining over Otsego and Delaware county.
Otherwise light winds are beginning to settle in with
temperatures beginning to gradually fall. Minor changes were
made to update temperatures using current observations,
otherwise previous forecast remains on track at this time.

630 PM Update...

Expanded the frost advisory this update to also include
Delaware, Otsego, Cortland and Chenango counties as model
guidance hints at light winds tonight with clear skies.
Radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the mid
30s overnight with cooler temperatures focused over our
valleys.

230 PM Update...

Gusty north-northwesterly winds across the forecast area will
taper off this evening. Calm winds and clear skies with no
precipitation expected through Thursday night. North-
northwesterly gusts pick up again Friday mid-morning.

Overnight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper-30s
to mid-40s across the forecast area, with some places down into
the mid-30s with radiational cooling. Patchy frost across
portions of the western Twin Tiers is favorable, with a Frost
Advisory issued for Steuben and Chemung counties in NY in effect
from Midnight tonight through 8 AM Friday. Temperatures
increase into the mid-60s to low-70s for Friday, and will
decrease into the low- to mid-40s, with possibly some areas in
the upper-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM update...

High pressure will continue to move east and out to sea Saturday
night. This then leaves the door open for a weak shortwave to move
into the region by Sunday with cloud cover increasing ahead of it
Saturday night. This shortwave will bring showers and potentially
thunderstorms to the region through at least Sunday night. At this
time, models are showing little for instability and shear, so severe
storms are not expected. Coverage of these showers and storms does
remain somewhat uncertain despite being just a few days out.
Solutions similar to the GFS keep coverage limited to mainly NEPA
and Catskills whereas solutions more like the ECMWF are a bit more
widespread across the region.

Temperatures Saturday night will be mild, only falling into the 50s.
Thanks to cloudy skies and showers for the second half of the
weekend, temps will only climb into the 70s though some locations
may struggle to get out of the 60s. The lows for Sunday night will
be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 AM update...

A upper-level ridge will build into the region early next week,
though a couple of stray showers south of the Twin Tiers may linger
around on Monday. With surface high pressure in control, quiet
conditions are expected until late Tuesday. Ensemble guidance
continues to bring in some showers for Tuesday but deterministic
guidance are trending drier, similar to the last 12 to 24 hours.
While NBM mean PoPs were favored, they were reduced for Tuesday
there is a good chance conditions will be drier if this trend in
guidance continues. Beyond Tuesday, the forecast remains uncertain.
During midweek, a low pressure system develops in the Upper Midwest.
With it, a cold front will extend north-south from the Canadian
border down into the South. Ahead of it, some showers may develop
Wednesday over portions of the Northeast. As a result, chance PoPs
are forecasted for Wednesday. Shower chances increase Wednesday
night into Thursday as this frontal system begins to move in from
the west. With some instability, afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will trend warmer through the first couple days of this
forecast period. The warmest day will be Tuesday with highs in the
80s. The midweek period will be slightly cooler. Nightly conditions
will be mild with temps only falling into the 50s and 60s.&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In mast cases, VFR conditions will persist through the period,
with light winds prevailing. Brief shallow valley fog is still
possible before dawn at ELM, though confidence remains low.

Outlook...

Late Friday Night through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR conditions.


Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ022-024-
     044>046-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...ES/KL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...ES/MPH