951
FXUS61 KBGM 060004
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
804 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Steadier rain and embedded thunderstorms moves through tonight
into Thursday. Strong to severe storms possible for Thursday
mid-morning through the afternoon. An upper level low then
brings an unsettled, cooler and showery weather pattern for
Friday and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Only minor changes with the early evening update. Most of the
incoming showers are on the lighter side and will only slide
east through the evening. Some heavier showers do still have
the potential to reach NE PA later this evening.

315 PM Update...

An upper-level system will be pushing a warm front through our
area in the next few hours, bringing scattered rain showers and
storms through the evening. As this system approaches the area a
little more overnight, another round of much steadier, heavier
rainfall will push through overnight Wednesday and into
Thursday. High precipitable values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will
help to bring in more intense rainfall, but the progressive
nature of the front bringing the rainfall will help push things
along and minimize chances for flash flooding. Though, there
still is a chance for flash flooding where multiple batches of
heavier rainfall occur over an area.

For Thursday, rainfall will continue through the early morning
hours. There may be a slight break in rain, or at least the
intensity will decrease, before a line of strong to severe
storms may develop and move through Thursday mid-morning
through the afternoon. CAPE values jump to 500-1000 j/kg, and
even some up to 1500 for northern portions of Central NY.
If severe storms were to develop, the main threat will likely be
strong to damaging winds. Things should be winding down towards
the evening hours, with some scattered showers lingering around
through Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
306 PM Update...

A complex blocking pattern across Canada and the North Atlantic will
result in broad troughing across the northeastern CONUS through
early next week. Embedded in that pattern, a closed mid-level low
will move slowly from Georgian Bay to the Ottawa Valley between
Friday morning and Saturday night. Several weaker shortwave troughs
will swing through our area like spokes on a wheel through the
period, modulating periods of showers and thunderstorms, with cooler
air aloft bringing below normal temperatures.

Timing of a shortwave trough on Friday looks to be fairly well-timed
with the diurnal cycle for fairly widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Bulk shear values are
impressive, 50-60 knots, but instability looks to be weak, with the
typically hot-running NAM suggesting max CAPE values of 300-400
J/Kg.

Precip looks to die off quickly after dark as the shortwave trough
pushes east of the area and daytime heating abates.

Additional showers look to favor mainly areas north of the Twin
Tiers on Saturday as another shortwave trough rolls through early in
the day. Another more significant round of showers is possible
Saturday night as a stronger shortwave trough drops through the
area. Though uncertainty remains high, a narrow band of heavier
precipitation is possible with this disturbance.

High temps look to hang around the upper-60s to lower-70s Friday and
Saturday, roughly 5 degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
306 PM Update...

As the slow-moving upper low finally moves into the Saint Lawrence
Valley Sunday, a final shortwave trough looks to dig down into the
lower Great Lakes. This will bring widespread rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region, along with continued
cooler than normal temperatures.

Cyclonic NW flow will persist into Monday, with additional mostly
diurnally-driven showers expected. A weak shortwave trough pushing
through may favor the late morning and early afternoon hours for
precip, with drier conditions moving in by evening. Temperatures
look to remain cooler than normal, with highs in the upper-60s to
lower-70s again.

Finally, a drier spell looks to set up beginning Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Ceilings are expected to gradually fall this evening as rain
showers begin to move into the region. As a result MVFR to Fuel
Alt restrictions are expected at most terminals. Model guidance
hints at possible IFR conditions from 06Z-12Z at AVP/BGM/ELM.
Otherwise ceilings will lift to MVFR sometime after sunrise and
remain MVFR for most of the day. Another round of showers with
possible thunderstorms are expected to move through late
tomorrow morning through early afternoon. Confidence is low on
timing of these storms therefore a prob group was used at
RME/SYR/BGM. Once showers lift out, VFR conditions are expected
to return by the end of the period.

Outlook...

Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms around with
MVFR Fuel Alt and even IFR restrictions likely. Lifting back to
mainly VFR after around 18z Thursday afternoon.


Thursday night through Sunday...

Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...ES