185
FXUS61 KBGM 180027
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
827 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild
weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend
for most of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Minor adjustments made to update temperatures and dew points
with current observations. Otherwise high cirrus clouds continue
to filter into the region this evening. Remaining forecast is
on track at this time.

350 PM Update:

High pressure continues to dominate our weather with just some
high cirrostratus overhead of a low pressure system over the
Carolinas. This is resulting in filtered sunshine this
afternoon. Tonight will generally be partly cloudy with the
higher clouds remaining across the area. Despite these clouds,
patchy valley fog will again be possible late tonight/early
Wednesday morning, similar to this morning. Low temperatures are
expected to be in the 50s.

Partly sunny skies are again expected on Wednesday with high
pressure remaining in control for the most part. A few isolated
showers associated with the northern edge of the system across
the Carolinas may graze by Wyoming Valley-Poconos, but the
majority of the area will likely remain dry. Highs are expected
to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

There may still be a few isolated showers across parts of
Northeast PA-Catskills Wednesday night, but the majority of the
area will remain dry. Lows are expected to be in the mid 50s to
near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM Update...

Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will lead to some
scattered clouds Thursday through Friday, but shower activity
associated with this system looks to struggle to make it as far
north and west as our area. A slight chance of showers (less
than 20%) is possible through Friday evening for portions of NE
PA and the southern Catskills, but if the low shifts a bit
farther west closer to the coast, this could lead to a slight
increase in the chance for showers. There is also a
northeasterly low level jet that seems to develop Thursday into
Friday over southern New England into northern New Jersey and
if this happens to shift north and west, this could also lead to
an increase in moisture in the higher terrain. High
temperatures will be running above average Thursday and Friday
ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Lows Thursday and
Friday night will be mainly in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM Update...

Saturday through Monday is expected to be largely dry as
surface high pressure noses down over the area from the
northeast and upper level ridging develops from the west. A weak
backdoor cold front looks to push through the area Saturday and
with east to northeasterly flow, temperatures are expected to
become more seasonable Sunday through early next week. The next
chance for showers looks to be Tuesday or Wednesday as the next
frontal boundary approaches.

Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 60s and low
70s over the Catskills to the upper 70s across the western part
of the CWA. Highs Sunday through early next week look to be in
the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be cooling down by
early next week with lows from the mid 40s to the mid 50s come
Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with widespread high clouds will persist through
the period, with the exception being ELM where valley fog is
expected to develop. Last night`s call to reduce fog at ELM did
not work out so well, and given similar conditions, expect fog
will develop again tonight despite the high cloud cover.

Fog at KELM will lift by 14Z, resulting in a return to VFR
conditions there.

Light winds generally from the SE will prevail through the
period.

.Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but there is a
very low chance for some isolated showers to possibly cause
brief restrictions at KAVP.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG/MPH