171
FXUS61 KBGM 070553
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
153 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, will push east
of the area this evening. Mostly dry conditions will follow, with
some valley fog developing late tonight. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected on Friday. This showery
pattern will continue through the weekend, with drier weather
expected by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With the evening updates continued to fine tune the cloud cover
and shower coverage. Still a few lingering showers across the
Southern Tier into NE PA as of late evening. Previous discussion
below.

337 PM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across the area this
afternoon, with the stronger storms generally extending south of
an apparent MCV. We`ve seen a few bowing segments, hints of
mesovortices, and wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but so far
nothing reaching severe limits. There`s still a very narrow
window, especially over eastern Otsego/Sullivan/Pike Counties
where the best instability is located.

Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions in the wake of this
system, though a very isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out before sunset.

Winds tonight will become light and variable, with at least some
patchy valley fog developing.

Our upper low will move slowly to Georgian Bay by tomorrow
morning, with another shortwave/vort lobe rotating through the
area during the afternoon, well-timed with the diurnal cycle.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms again, though cloud
cover will limit instability. One or two stronger storms can`t
be ruled out, especially given fairly strong 0-6km bulk shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM Update...

An upper-level low will hang around just north of the region
through the weekend, maintaining chances for light rain showers
through Saturday A shortwave propagating eastward into Central
NY and NE PA along the south side of the upper-level low Sunday
will bring some more intense rain showers. Generally, we`re
looking at up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall between
Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures maintain in the
high-60s to low-70s in the day time, and drop into the mid-50s
overnight Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
235 PM Update...

The upper-level low finally kicks out of our region Monday, with
lingering showers expected. Conditions dry up Tuesday as there`s
weak ridging that begins to build over the area. Tuesday into
Wednesday is when long-term guidance begins to differ pretty
differently, with each solution having either longer and
stronger ridging, or the next system and troughing moving in.
For now, chances of rain showers come back after Tuesday and for
the rest of the week until there`s a more definitive solution on
timing of any rain showers and/or afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across much of the area tonight. The
one exception is ELM where clear skies, calm winds and a moist
ground will allow fog to develop in the valley tonight,
bringing steady IFR to LIFR conditions from 8z-12z.

Another round of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is
expected during the afternoon hours with ITH/SYR/RME having the
best chance for thunderstorm development during the afternoon
hours. Given the high cloud bases and lack of deep moisture, IFR
conditions are not expected within these showers and storms at
this time. If a stronger cell moved in directly over a terminal,
there could be IFR visby for a very short period, but confidence
in this occurring was not high enough to include in the TAF.


Outlook...

Friday Night...MVFR conditions near RME with showers off Lake
Ontario. VFR expected everywhere else.

Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief
restrictions likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC