Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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079 FXUS63 KBIS 050853 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong westerly winds today across western and central North Dakota through Thursday. - The strongest winds today are expected in southwest with gusts up to 55 mph. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures with mostly dry weather through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Somewhat zonal flow on the south side of a stacked low system in southern Canada currently. High pressure is to our southwest in Wyoming. A tight pressure gradient force and a weak cold front this afternoon will produce very strong west winds, especially in the southwest portion of the state of North Dakota. Winds will gust as high as 55 mile per hour. We decided to go with an advisory instead of a high wind warning because only a few locations in the southwest could mix winds higher than 55 mile per hour, and we just didn`t have the confidence in widespread 60 mile per hour winds to do a warning. So, we have a two part Wind Advisory. The southwest portion starts at 10z and the rest of the county warning area starts a little bit later in the morning at 15z. The Wind Advisory (both parts) will expire at 02z. However it will remain breezy through the night, so make sure you keep your objects secured still. This is because the high pressure bubble will move west to east across the state, starting right now. The west has already started gusting at 30 mile per hour, at the time of this issuance of the area forecast discussion. Thursday will be breezy, but the winds will not be gusting as high, just around 40 mile per hour in the east, and around 30 elsewhere. Temperatures today will be below average again thanks to the northwest surface flow and the cold front already mentioned. Aloft the flow will turn northwest with a large ridge building around the Four Corners High pressure in the Southwest CONUS. This ridge will last through the weekend with no push of warm air to North Dakota by the thermal ridge. It stays mostly south of here. So, even though we will have ridging, the high temperatures everyday will stay at or below average through this weekend. There will be slight (20 percent) chances for thunderstorms in the far northeast, where the cyclonic flow is still existing. The chances are this afternoon, and Friday afternoon. After Saturday the flow aloft changes slightly. We still have the ridge but now it is compressed by an upper level low in southern Canada. Temperatures will cool even more for Sunday as zonal westerly flow is over North Dakota. It is not until Monday for when rain chances are possible with this low. A cold front and shortwave rotating around the low move through. For now we just have slight (15 percent) chances moving west to east across the state Monday. Another ridge looks to move in mid-week. This one is smaller and quick moving, but it will bring warmer 850 millibar temperatures. So highs Tuesday and Wednesday look to be above normal in the upper 70s and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. Gusts of 35 to 45 kts are expected form the west, with the strongest winds in the southwest. A period of LLWS is expected over the north and parts of the central tonight, including at KXWA, KMOT, and KBIS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 034>037-042-045>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NDZ031>033-040- 041-043-044. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith