Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
591 FXUS63 KBIS 041138 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 638 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers will continue through the morning, then in the early afternoon northwest. - Strong northwest winds Tuesday through Thursday. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible Wedneday. - Seasonable temperatures expected through the week with slightly warmer temperatures possible late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Showers continue in most of the CWA. The cold front is nearing the Missouri River, turning winds to the west. There are showers overrunning the front back to the Dickinson area. Winds will start to increase west to east as a surface ridge and high pressure squeeze winds between that and the low pressure in the eastern Dakotas. The showers will push east and out by this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Currently the upper level low and shortwave is located over northeast Montana into North Dakota. At the surface a cold front is moving east through North Dakota with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. A surface low is located in north central South Dakota. The thunderstorms are east of the low in the warm sector (James River Valley), while the light showers are along the cold front to the west. These will continue moving east this morning. With the upper low spinning in Canada and the cold front, temperatures will be much cooler in the upper 60s and lower 70s today. There is a chance of rain in the north central with a small wave from the upper low this afternoon. Wednesday air at the surface will be squeezed between a high in Montana and a low north of Minnesota. With this northwest surface flow, cooler air and a pressure rise bubble move through. Winds could gust as high as 50mph in the southwest. We opted not to issue a High Wind Watch yet because of lower confidence right now. However we will for sure need a headline, whether its a high wind warning for a few hours in the afternoon or a wind advisory all day. Flow aloft Wednesday goes zonal while a large ridge moves overhead through the weekend. This will give us a break from all these shower and thunderstorms. Highs will stay around average (mid 70s) through this time. Monday a small disturbance could move through bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Then another ridge could move in next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR with scattered showers between KDIK and KJMS and up to KMOT. These will push east by this afternoon. A cold front is moving through turning winds to the west and gusting up to 35kts today. Clouds should clear out today, except in the north where scattered 6000ft, maybe becoming a ceiling are possible this afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith