741
FNUS73 KBIS 201302
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for 87a Loop Pool...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
802 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

It looks to be a fairly quiet day at the burn site with a few
clouds this morning giving way to a mostly sunny sky through the
afternoon. The high will reach to around 67 with an afternoon
minimum humidity of around 34 percent. Winds will be out of the
northwest in the 8 to 11 mph range. Tonight we will see a low
around 42 with humidity recovering to around 86 percent.

Tomorrow`s forecast should be fairly similar but there could be a
slight chance of a shower in the afternoon and the minimum
humidity will be a little bit higher, around 40 percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (54300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (96600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  33  27  35  43  51  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  59  61  64  65  65  66
RH..............63  55  49  41  38  37  34
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT wind spd..10  10  11  11  11  10   8
20 FT wind gust.13  13  14  14  14  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 5.3 6.1 6.7 7.4 8.0 8.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  16  17  16  15  13  12
Haines index....3   4   4   4   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..54  74  92  94  97  88  82

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    around 7 mph late in the evening, then becoming
                    light and variable late.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (64600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62  68  67  65  63  61  59  57  55  53  51  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............66  65  63  58  54  53  51  49  47  46  45  44
RH..............34  35  39  51  59  61  68  71  76  79  82  86
20 FT wind dir..N   NW  N   E   SE  W   NW  E   SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.11  10  9   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...8.1 7.2 5.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  E   SE  N   NE  E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   6   7   9   12  9   9   8   8   8   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..65  50  26  3   4   5   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning, then shifting to the east 6 to
                    7 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the
                    north 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph shifting to the west 10
                    to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (57300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........42        38        45        56
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............44        53        62        66
RH..............86        71        48        40
20 FT wind......S 3G6     SE 5G8    E 6G10    N 8G12
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1300      5600      5800
Transport wind..SE 7      S 10      SW 10     W 12
Haines index....5         5         4         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..2         12        48        57

$$
Forecaster...HARGROVE
Requested by...Jason Wagner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414623.1/BIS
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jason_wagner@fws.gov