Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
373 FXUS64 KBMX 280541 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1241 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 A frontal boundary will continue to move to the southeast through the day today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front in the southeastern third of Central Alabama through the afternoon and evening. Instabilities will be between the 3000 and 3500 J/kg range, though winds will be fairly light with shear values hovering around 30 kts in the late afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds the main threat. This evening, the front will move southeast of the area with activity diminishing shortly after sunset. Fog development is possible in the southeast where rain sets up this evening, though will need to monitor coverage tonight. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s in the north to the lower 90s in the south. Though with the amount of moisture present over the south, heat indices will be in the upper 90s. Low temperatures will be in the 60s, a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Tuesday will have high pressure and mostly clear skies with northerly flow bringing plenty of dry air to the state. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday, though with lower PW values, the heat indices will feel like the actually temperature. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 256 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 Long term forecast is on track this afternoon, with no significant changes needed. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 High pressure builds in across the region Tuesday night and will persist through much of the upcoming week. This will lead to mostly dry conditions for Central AL with seasonably warm temperatures. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential for a weak shortwave sliding through the area Wednesday into Thursday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty in that occurring, so the forecast remains mostly dry through the period. Our next chance for rain/storms doesn`t come in until the end of the week and into next weekend. The ridge shifts slightly to our east, allowing for an upper wave to dip into the Mid-south at some point, but model guidance has gone back and forth on this feature, showing quite a bit of variability in timing and evolution. For now, I`ve continued to trend rain/storm chances up to 20-30% for next weekend, but I would expect several changes to that over the next few days. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024 VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period. The exception will be ANB and potentially TOI where MVFR Vis is expected between roughly 6z and 12z. Some guidance tries to spread the fog into MGM, but confidence isn`t there right now to add it into the TAF. Otherwise, mostly a diurnal wind forecast across the area with light to variable winds increasing during the daytime hours before decreasing again during the evening. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and storms end this evening, with winds becoming northwesterly to northerly at less than 5mph. Some of the storms could produce damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Drier air arrives tomorrow, with min RH values in the 30-40 percent range Tuesday afternoon and 35 to 55 percent range Wednesday afternoon, with the lowest values in the southeast. Overnight recovery RH values will range from 75-85 percent Tuesday night. 20ft winds remain out of the northwest through Wednesday at 4-6mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 86 58 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 87 60 85 59 / 0 0 10 10 Birmingham 89 64 86 62 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 90 63 86 63 / 0 0 10 10 Calera 89 64 85 62 / 0 0 10 10 Auburn 88 65 85 64 / 0 0 10 10 Montgomery 91 64 87 65 / 0 0 10 10 Troy 90 64 88 65 / 0 0 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...25/Owen