070
FXUS64 KBMX 300520
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

More recent model guidance shows the potential for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across southern and central areas
during the morning and daytime hours tomorrow. Have increased PoPs
spatially during this time period, but remained at slight chance
for now. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid.

12

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

High pressure will be over the southeast through tomorrow. Dry
weather and increasing clouds will be the main story for today,
with high temperatures a few degrees above normal for this time of
year. Overnight through early Thursday, a shortwave will move
across the state, with models showing different resolutions of how
widely scattered activity will be through the morning. Most of the
western half of the state could see scattered rain with isolated
thunder, though instabilities will be limited. Any activity
should quickly weaken into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
several degrees low with expected increase in cloud cover and
northerly flow continuing over the state.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

Model trends continue to show mostly dry conditions through the
week, as zonal to northwesterly flow continues aloft. Impulses
driving convection weaken as they cross the Lower Mississippi
River Valley, leaving very little chance for rain for the end of
the work week. For Saturday and Sunday, a stronger
shortwave/closed low will move through the Mississippi River
Valley toward the Ohio River Valley. There is a large amount of
uncertainty in strength, timing, and track of this wave, which
leads to a low confidence forecast for rain chances over the
weekend and into next week. Highs will generally be in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

VFR conditions to remain for the period. Winds will shift to more
of northerly direction by 18 to 21. A shower/storm can not be
ruled out south of EET/TCL but chances remain at 20 percent or
less so continued to leave out.

NOTE: Metars for ANB are unavailable, so added AMD NOT SKED for
this update.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered rain chances return for Thursday, but better
chances in the southwest and the northeast likely remaining dry.
Moisture returns, with minimum RH values in the 35 to 50 percent
range during the afternoons Thursday through Saturday. 20ft winds
will be light and variable, becoming southeasterly Saturday at
4-7mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  55  87  61 /  10   0   0  10
Anniston    83  58  88  62 /  10  10   0  10
Birmingham  84  62  89  67 /  20  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  82  63  89  67 /  20  10  10  10
Calera      82  62  88  66 /  20  10   0  10
Auburn      81  62  86  65 /  20  10   0  10
Montgomery  81  62  89  67 /  20  10   0  10
Troy        82  62  89  67 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16