587
FXUS64 KBMX 290516
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

High pressure will develop over the MS River Valley and slowly
move east through the short term. Mid level flow will remain out
of the north today, limiting the amount of moisture advection to
the state, leaving mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Wednesday morning, as the high pressure
moves east, flow will shift to out of the southeast, bringing
warm and moist air beginning to advect into the western part of
the state. A shortwave will move across the south, causing showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop to the west of Alabama.
However, instability will be fairly limited, so models diverge on
how much activity will be over the state. Opted for a optimistic
scenario with an increase in clouds and an isolated small cell to
occur over western third of Central Alabama, but otherwise, the
area should remain mostly dry.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Updates made to long term for temperature trends and minor
adjusts to rain chances. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty on timing of impulses and shortwaves. There could be a
couple opportunities mid week for isolated rain chances, but
better chances arrive for the weekend as a shortwave crosses the
region.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Weather conditions in the long term look to be dominated by rather
progressive upper level flow, with several shortwaves zipping
through periodically. Difference in timing/placement and strength of
individual shortwaves among the various models leads to a somewhat
low confidence forecast. Looks like one wave approaches the area on
Friday, and another on Saturday, both if which could lead to periods
of slightly enhanced POPs. Otherwise, we may be entering a more
summertime weather regime, with daily diurnal convective chances
being driven by mesoscale processes not handled well by the long
range global models.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

VFR conditions expected across the area tonight through Wednesday.
High pressure builds into the region with drier air in place.
Winds will be variable and light through roughly 16-18z before
increasing out of the northwest to 5-8kts. Winds will then become
light to calm around 00z Thursday.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday and Thursday,
but expect most of the area to be dry. Recovery RH values tonight
will be in the 80 to 90 percent range, with light 20ft winds. Minimum
RH values tomorrow afternoon will be in the 30-45 percent range
with 20ft winds from the northwest at 4-6mph. Moisture gradually
increases Thursday and Friday, with minimum RHs above 40 percent
and 20ft winds becoming southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  59  80  58 /   0  10  20  10
Anniston    86  60  81  61 /   0  10  20  10
Birmingham  87  64  80  63 /  10  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  89  65  81  64 /  10  30  30  20
Calera      88  64  81  63 /  10  20  20  20
Auburn      86  64  81  64 /   0  10  10  20
Montgomery  89  66  83  66 /  10  10  10  20
Troy        89  66  85  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25/Owen