110
FXUS64 KBMX 211704
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1204 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024

Height rises are occurring this afternoon as the mid-level ridge
axis, extending from the 594dam height center over Mexico, shifts
east across Central Alabama. The surface ridge remains in place
along the East Coast. Under the effects of deep ridging,
temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon
with some spots potentially hitting 90F. Mostly sunny conditions
are expected with some fair weather cu.

A weak mid-level impulse will pass across the area tomorrow bringing
some high clouds in addition to more low-level cu, but rain is not
expected. Warm conditions are expected once again with temperatures
rising from the lower to mid 60s during the morning to the upper 80s
by afternoon as flow becomes more zonal aloft.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024

A quasi-stationary front will lay over across the Tennessee and
Ohio Valley region on Thursday after the departure of a potent low
pressure system to the north. This will coincide with a zone of
higher moisture content and confluent low-level flow. As such,
I`ve maintained low PoPs across the far north and northwest
counties, though most convective activity should remain closer to
the I-40 corridor in Tennessee. Most of Central Alabama will
remain dry and hot, basically summer-like weather pattern. In
fact, temperatures will remain generally steady in the upper 80s
and lower 90s.

By Friday a southern stream shortwave perturbation scoots east
across the I-40 corridor. We`ve had some higher PoPs, but I feel
like the timing is not in favor of higher convective coverage as
it will be to our northeast during peak heating. Best rain chances
remain north of I-20, but I`ve included token 20s through the
southern zones.

Memorial Day weekend looks fairly steady with isolated to
scattered afternoon convection, with best chances northward near
best moisture, instability, and westerly flow aloft. Presence of
the ridge will wane a bit this weekend, allowing for these
increases in mid-level flow. We`ll probably be on the fringes of
seeing some organized thunderstorm activity through the end of
the period (Monday), though medium-range guidance remains
consistent with best forcing and wind shear staying to our north.
Nonetheless, it`s something to keep in mind as the trend in
guidance indicates each convective system drawing closer to
Alabama.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024

Some cu is developing as usual, but VFR conditions will continue
through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Surface
winds will vary from easterly to southeasterly at 5 to 8 kts.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will be in control through Thursday. Min RH values
Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. 20 foot
winds will be generally 4 to 6 mph from the south. Max RH levels
tonight will rebound to the mid 80s to mid 90s. Next chance for
wetting rain Thursday night across the northwest, with a better
chance area-wide on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    64  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  67  89  70  89 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  66  89  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      65  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      65  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  64  89  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        62  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...86/Martin