276
FXUS65 KBOU 062347
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
547 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be a warmer on Friday as well as scattered
  late day showers and thunderstorms.

- Minor snowmelt impacts from rising streams, mainly in Grand
  County

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend
  into early next week, along with cooler temperatures. A couple
  storms could be strong to severe.

- Gradual trend towards warmer/drier weather towards the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

There are a few Cumulus clouds over the mountains and foothills
at this time. The wind field remains pretty weak across the CWA.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower and mid 80s F over the
plains, with 50s F over the high mountains and 60s & 70s F over
the high parks and foothills.

Models keep showing the flat upper ridging over the CWA tonight and
Friday with 30 to 50 knot west-southwesterly jet level flow. The
QG fields show benign synoptic scale energy over our forest area
tonight and Friday. Looking at the CAPE fields, there is some
progged early this evening over the southwest and south central
CWA. On Friday, there is fairly decent CAPE over most of the CWA
with values in the 300-900 J/Kg range.  Moisture is progged to
increase on Friday with precipitable water values to be in the
0.60 to 1.30 inch range by Friday afternoon. So scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected over most areas Friday
afternoon. Temperatures look to be 1-4 C warmer for highs than
this afternoon`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Cooler and stormy weather looks likely this weekend as a plume of
well above normal moisture enters the region.

Saturday should see the best chances for organized convection,
with guidance in largely good agreement that we`ll see
temperatures warm into the upper 70s/low 80s as dew points climb
into the upper 40s to low 50s. A shortwave is also expected to
track across the region, with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow
developing by mid/late afternoon. This should be the focus for at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms, though there are hints
at capping holding on through most of the day. Storms that do
develop could be strong to severe, with primarily a hail threat.
Heavy rain will also be possible but impacts here are limited
given storm motions near 15-20kt.

Moisture will linger across the area on Sunday and Monday, with
greater uncertainty in the forecast. There should be enough
instability left, along with some weak/subtle forcing for
scattered convection... especially closer to the foothills where
the synoptic scale lift would be aided by weak surface
convergence. Generally precipitation chances will decrease through
Tuesday as we continue to lose instability/moisture.

A return to warmer and drier weather looks likely by mid/late next
week as ridging begins to build back across the region. Too early
to get into many details, but a return to the upper 80s/low 90s
looks likely by Wednesday. Ensemble guidance favors this pattern
continuing into next weekend, with just enough moisture for
scattered showers and storms across the high country each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

All terminals will continue in VFR conditions for the TAF period.
Light southeast winds should increase overnight between 8-13kts
for all sites. By late Friday morning, northwest winds should
increase between 12-15kts producing gusts up to 20-27kts.
Thunderstorms could develop near terminals as early as 20Z
producing wind gusts up to 25-35kts for all terminals. There is
higher confidence for thunderstorms at KAPA thus this update
included a TEMPO for TSRA. It is possible storms may continue
until 02Z Friday evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Elevated flows continue across most of the higher elevation rivers
and streams, particularly across the upper Colorado River basin.
Continued snowmelt and additional rainfall this weekend could lead
to additional increases in river flows. Remain cognizant of the
dangers of these cold flows, and be aware of any Flood Advisories.

In the forecast period, the main concern is a limited threat of
burn area flash flooding by Saturday. Moisture increases
substantially as PWATs remain close to 150-200% of normal across
the high country from Saturday into Monday. Better instability
should be in place on Saturday, though stronger mid-level flow
will keep storm motions quick. The heavy rain potential Sunday and
Monday will be influenced by how much instability remains.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RJK
LONG TERM......Hiris
AVIATION...AD
HYDROLOGY......Hiris