313
FXUS61 KBTV 101744
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system centered over southern Quebec
this morning will gradually weaken as it pulls away toward the
Gulf of St. Lawrence. A continued moist northwesterly flow will
bring abundant clouds today, along with scattered light rain
showers, especially during the morning hours today. The
influence of the upper low will gradually diminish with a trend
toward warmer and increasingly sunny conditions for the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame. Valley high temperatures should be
well into the 80s by Thursday. The next frontal system is
expected to arrive on Friday, with a chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Monday...Cyclonic flow with weak sfc trof
continues to produce light rain or areas of drizzle this aftn,
as temps struggle in the 50s to near 60F. Overall, all elements
are covered in crnt fcst.

Previous discussion below:
Low-to-mid level cyclonic flow continues on western periphery
of closed upper low translating slowly newd toward the Gulf of
St. Lawrence. At 1015Z, a large band of light rain shower
activity extended from near KMSS ewd along the intl border into
the northern Champlain Valley and across far northern VT. This
band of light rain will continue sewd at 20-25 mph during the
next 1-3 hours, bringing up to 0.10" of additional rainfall.
Highest PoPs around 70% are across far n-central and
northeastern VT through 14Z this morning. Appears most of the
rain shower activity will shift south and east of the region by
this afternoon, with chances for rain showers this afternoon
(30-40%) generally confined to s-central VT and Essex County NY.
Will see light SW winds shift W-NW this afternoon, and
lingering inversion layer will bring abundant stratus and
stratocu this morning, with just a few breaks possible this
afternoon. Overall pattern favorable for continued below average
temperatures, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s in VT,
and only upper 50s to lower 60s across the Adirondacks and St.
Lawrence Valley of NY. These stratus should linger tonight, with
any breaks in the cloud cover leading to patchy fog overnight,
especially in the favored valley locations of central/ern VT.
Overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 40s, except lower 50s
for the Champlain Valley region.

On Tuesday, we should finally see the upper low weaken and move far
enough eastward that it loses its influence on our weather. Morning
low clouds and fog will gradually dissipate by late morning/noon,
with increasing afternoon sunshine and light NW wind conditions.
Temperatures will begin moderating as well, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s, and possible close to 75F in the CT River Valley
area. Carried just a 20-30% chance of a rain shower Tuesday
afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain areas with shallow
instability developing with peak daytime heating. Any rain
shower activity will quickly dissipate during the early evening
hours with onset of diurnal cooling cycle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Any showers during the day Tuesday will
wane Tuesday night with a loss of instability. Overnight low
temperatures look to be seasonable Tuesday night, generally in the
low 50s with parts of the Adirondacks dropping into the 40s although
if skies are able to clear temperatures may be even cooler.

Conditions trend drier by Wednesday with an upper level trough
departing and surface high pressure building overhead. Some
lingering shortwave energy will allow for some diurnally driven
showers Wednesday afternoon, primarily across the Northeast Kingdom,
but there is still some uncertainty regarding this feature and if it
materializes. 925mb temperatures look to warm to 16-18C, which
supports daytime high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, with
temperatures generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Monday...After a brief period of drier conditions,
chances for precipitation return Thursday night into Friday as a
cold front passes through the region. Guidance has started to come
into better agreement regarding this feature, with both
deterministic and ensemble guidance showing the greatest potential
for precipitation on Friday although the feature is still a few days
away. Temperatures will warm for the later half of the week, with
highs during the day on Thursday in the 80s. Temperatures will be
warm during the day Friday, but showers will keep things a few
degrees cooler than Thursday. Increasing moisture will keep
overnight lows warm ahead of the cold front, only dropping into the
60s. In the wake of the frontal passage, drier and more seasonable
conditions look to return for the weekend with upper level ridging
and surface high pressure building.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A wide range of conditions this aftn from
intervals of IFR at MPV/SLK to VFR at BTV/PBG, while rest of taf
sites are experiencing MVFR conditions. Have used a 1 hour
tempo group for SLK/MPV to cover IFR cigs potential, but feel
conditions should trend toward MVFR in the next 1 to 2 hours.
Utilizing the AvnFPS cigs/vis climo trend tool indicates based
on crnt obs at 17z at SLK, probability of IFR/LIFR conditions
increases to 30-40% by 02z and 50-60% by 05z, so have trended
toward IFR by 02z with potential LIFR conditions by 06z. A
similar type scenario, but delayed by a few hours is expected
at MPV. Otherwise, a combination of VFR/MVFR cigs are
anticipated at the other taf sites, with highest probability of
VFR at PBG and MSS thru the period. Conditions slowly improve to
VFR at all sites by 15z Tuesday. Winds west/northwest 5 to 10
knots become light and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber