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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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599 FXUS61 KBTV 090801 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will continue to control the regions weather through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal showers each day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Drier conditions return mid-week along with more seasonally warm temperatures, but the threat for showers returns for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...Cool weather will prevail for today through tomorrow, along with continued chances for showers as we remain under upper level trough through the period. Upper level trough will be over the region today, with strong vorticity advection passing overhead this morning. This will bring fairly widespread rain to the region, and it will be heavy at times. Area of rain crosses the area from about 4 am till 4 pm. Part of the forecast area most likely to see heavy rain is along a line from Lake Placid to Montpelier to St Johnsbury and points south of there. Rainfall totals in that area will be around a half to three quarters of an inch. The rest of our area will have totals closer to a quarter to four tenths of an inch of rainfall. There will also be a chance for some thunderstorms this afternoon, though surface based instability will be pretty limited, there is a cold pool aloft associated with upper low very near to the area. Soundings continue to show some steep low level lapse rates and just a little CAPE, so we can`t rule out thunder this afternoon. Small hail will be possible from any stronger cores with pretty low freezing levels in place also. Maximum temperatures today will range through the 60s. Looks like we`ll have a bit of a break in the shower activity overnight, though the region will remain cloudy. Minimum temperatures will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Chance for showers will increase again during the day Monday as more shortwave energy passes through base of upper level trough which will still remain overhead. Surface based instability will be even more limited on Monday, and have continued to leave out mention of thunder for now. Maximum temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s, coolest in Northern New York. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...Conditions trend drier for Tuesday as the closed upper low finally pushes to the east and high pressure begins to build overhead. Some diurnally driven showers may still be possible during the afternoon, especially across the Northeast Kingdom which is closer to the periphery of the departing upper low, although they will be less widespread than previous days. Temperatures on Tuesday will seasonable, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Any showers that do develop during the afternoon will quickly taper off towards the evening, with dry conditions overnight and seasonable overnight low temperatures in the mid 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...The break in the unsettled pattern can be expected for mid-week as high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the second half of the week, which is a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will largely be in the 50s to low 60s for most of next week. Chances for precipitation return before the end of the week, generally Thursday or Friday depending on the guidance. Despite the chances for precipitation, showers look to be very diurnally driven and scattered rather than a complete wash out. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to how long the unsettled weather lingers, with several of the deterministic global models showing the precipitation through Saturday. Given the high uncertainty at this point, continued with a chance to slight chance of showers through Saturday before more dry weather makes a return. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Rain showers are expected to return around 09Z-15Z, which could lower visibilities at times to MVFR levels. Steadiest rain will occur for southern sites, like RUT, MPV, and even SLK, likely just scraping northern most sites MSS and EFK. Ceilings will lower with this bout of precipitation, dropping to MVFR and occasional IFR levels around the same time precipitation moves through. Ceilings should begin to improve around 15Z-19Z, though rain and rain showers could continue through 00z. Showers should die down from 00z-06z but some of the lower ceilings will remain. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Neiles