437
FXUS61 KBTV 090525
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
125 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to control the regions
weather through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal
showers each day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
Drier conditions return mid-week along with more seasonally warm
temperatures, but the threat for showers returns for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 122 AM EDT Sunday...No big change for last evening
update.

Previous Discussion...Lingering showers this afternoon will
dissipate towards sunset with quiet conditions expected for the
majority of night as weak ridging develops. Mostly cloudy skies
will generally prevail with overnight lows ranging through the
50s.

Early Sunday our next shortwave trough currently over Lake
Superior approaches, and centers over the region in the
afternoon. A batch of more stratiform rain is expected to
precede the trough tracking through the region from 09-15Z
before moving out, but soundings for the afternoon continue to
show steepening low level lapse rates and the development of
modest instability of 500-800 J/kg of CAPE supporting some
isolated thunderstorm development. Expect areal coverage for the
afternoon to be more than today, but less than Friday and small
hail from any stronger cores is certainly a possibility as well
with freezing levels only progged to be around 7000 feet. Highs
will remain on the cool side of normal in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 247 PM EDT Saturday...The center of a closed mid/upper
lvl cyclonic circulation wl be located over northern Maine at
12z Monday, with several embedded s/w pieces of energy still
rotating acrs our cwa. This energy, combined with cyclonic
northwest upslope flow, and favorable 850 to 500mb rh>70%
supports the idea of chc to low likely pops for Monday. Crnt
progged position of forcing and deepest moisture, would have the
mtns of northern/central VT and parts of the NEK with the
highest pops, while values taper off toward the SLV and lower
CPV/CT Valley on Monday. Given cold core aloft and limited
instability, feel probability of thunder is <15% attm and wl not
include in crnt fcst. Furthermore, the NBM shows probability of
sfc based CAPE >400 J/kg only in the 10-20% range acrs
southern/central VT on Monday, indicating limited instability.
We wl cont to monitor trends if more clearing/heating can
develop for greater threat for a rumble or two. Otherwise,
progged 925mb temps are pretty cool for this time of year with
values in the 8-10C range, supporting highs mostly in the 60s to
lower 70s near VSF. Monday night areal coverage of precip
quickly dissipates as weak sfc ridging tries to build into our
cwa. The cyclonic flow aloft still supports the idea of
lingering clouds with maybe a light shower over the trrn, but
mostly dry conditions should prevail. If pockets of clearing
develop, patchy fog is possible, but feel probability is <20%
attm given clouds and winds, but something to watch. Lows range
from the lower 40s to mid 50s on Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Saturday...The large scale pattern wl feature
a drier and warmer setup for mid to late week, typical of early
to mid June. The probability of precip increases in the
Thurs/Friday timeframe, but have kept values in the 20-35% range
for now. In addition, neither day looks to be a complete
washout, but more typical of aftn/evening showers/storms
associated with s/w energy and passage of several boundaries.
Given the developing fast flow aloft, timing s/w energy and
associated boundaries becomes increasingly more difficult in the
later periods. Weak short wave ridge tries to develop on Tues
into Weds as small/compacted vort slides off the mid Atlantic
with best forcing and moisture staying south of our cwa. Progged
925mb temps warm a few degrees with values 12-14C on Tues and
15-17C on Weds, supporting highs 70s on Tues and mid 70s to
lower 80s by Weds. Given the drying profiles have expanded the
overnight low ranges from lower 40s to mid/upper 50s Weds and
upper 40s to near 60F by Thurs. By late week elongated s/w
energy associated with mid/upper lvl trof passing to our nw
results in modest height falls acrs the ne conus. This energy
combined with slightly better instability and moisture results
in chc pops on Thurs/Fri. If crnt progs hold, granted its 6 to 7
days away and always subject to change, high pres builds into
our cwa for a drying trend toward next weekend. Increasing
south/southwest flow ahead of elongated energy wl help to advect
warmer temps back into our cwa, with progged 925mb temps back
into the 18-20C range by Thurs/Friday supporting highs upper 70s
to mid 80s. Crnt guidance keeps warmest temps and best
instability mostly south of our cwa for the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Rain showers are expected to return
around 09Z-15Z, which could lower visibilities at times to MVFR
levels. Steadiest rain will occur for southern sites, like RUT,
MPV, and even SLK, likely just scraping northern most sites MSS
and EFK. Ceilings will lower with this bout of precipitation,
dropping to MVFR and occasional IFR levels around the same time
precipitation moves through. Ceilings should begin to improve
around 15Z-19Z, though rain and rain showers could continue
through 00z. Showers should die down from 00z-06z but some of
the lower ceilings will remain.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles