896
FXUS61 KBTV 011107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is expected through the weekend into early next week
with many places warming into the 80s each day. Dry weather is also
expected to continue with high pressure expected to remain entrenched
across the region. As it stands, the next chances for any appreciable
rainfall aren`t until Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 704 AM EDT Saturday...There are no major changes to the
forecast for today. Temperatures will warm quickly this morning
under clear skies with highs peaking out in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Previous Discussion...Another beautiful day is on tap for the
North Country with plentiful sunshine and seasonal temperatures in
the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dewpoints this afternoon are expected to
tank as we mix to around 6000 ft. A plethora of dry air aloft is
expected to lower dewpoints into the 30s which will make it feel
very pleasant outside given the lack of humidity. In addition to dry
air mixing down to the surface, we will see gusty northwest winds up
to 25 mph during the afternoon as well. Moisture will begin to
return to the region tonight in the form of clouds which should help
moderate temperatures a bit and keep them warmer than the previous
few nights. The warming trend is expected to continue into Sunday
with most locations warming into the 80s. Again, dewpoints are
expected to tank in the afternoon with plenty of dry air aloft
mixing down to the surface. Although it`ll be warm, the lower
humidity values should make it feel quite comfortable outside.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...North Country Chamber of Commerce
weather continues for the short term fcst with continued mostly
dry conditions and comfortable temps. Cannot completely rule out
a very isolated <5% coverage of a shower on Monday aftn over the
higher trrn associated with llvl east/northeast flow. However,
forcing/moisture is minimal and instability parameters show <350
J/kg of sfc based CAPE. Progged 925mb temps near 20C, adding at
least 10C, given dry air and decent mixing supports highs well
into the 80s most locations. However, humidity values remain in
the comfortable range as drier air aloft mixes toward the sfc
during the aftn hours. Based on dry air and lingering sfc high
pres, did trim lows at SLK/NEK by several degrees with values
mid 40s to near 60F for Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...Large scale pattern amplification
occurs for midweek with an omega type structure to the mid/upper
lvl height fields. Initially we are in the sweet spot for
continued dry conditions with comfortable temps for Tues into
Weds. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s for midweek,
supported by progged 925mb temps in the 19-21C range. Meanwhile,
lows should drop back into the 50s to lower 60s with comfortable
humidity values.

The long term challenge is timing large scale pattern change
toward the end of the week into next weekend and potential for
prolonged period of unsettled wx to develop with cooler temps.
Guidance has been struggling with development of deep/closed
cyclonic circulation over the northern Plains and how quickly
east this system tracks for late week. Latest trends have been
for a slower arrival to height falls and potential precip with
greatest probability of measurable precip arriving late Thurs
into Friday. Ensemble data continues to support a rather large
spread in potential solutions, so for now have cut back on
likely pops offered by the NBM and have chc wording, which wl
increase once timing becomes clearer. In addition, as mid/upper
lvl trof develops toward next weekend, cooler air at all levels
develops, along with more clouds results in cooler daytime high
temps, but overnight lows remain on the milder side. Highs
mostly in the 70s with lows upper 50s to mid 60s for late next
week, with pops in the 30-45% range.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning
will become steady from the northwest with gusty winds
materializing by late morning. Wind gusts in the 20-25 knot
range are expected between 15Z and 23Z with winds becoming light
and variable thereafter.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Clay