769
FXUS61 KBTV 282338
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue into tonight but they will gradually
become lighter and narrower in coverage. Dry weather should mostly
prevail for the rest of the week though there could be a few
isolated showers on Wednesday. A cool dry airmass will bring
gorgeous weather for the end of the week and beginning of the
weekend, but there will be the chance of patchy frost in the
coldest locations Wednesday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 727 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast is in good shape this
evening. A few changes were made to match the latest
observations, including temperature, wind, and precipitation.
There`s a bit more of a gradient in temperatures with portions
of southern Vermont still in the low 70s while rain cooled air
and northwesterly winds in much of northern New York and
northern Champlain Valley has brought temperatures into the
upper 50s to low 60s. Added a little bit to wind gusts this
evening, especially in central/eastern Vermont with favorable
west-northwest flow and lack of rain and associated lower
clouds. Also backed off PoPs quite a bit over about the southern
half of Vermont and southern Essex County, New York with a
plethora of dry air evident in forecast soundings and satellite
imagery making it unlikely for upstream showers to make it into
the area with more than a trace of rainfall.

Previous Discussion... A large upper level low will be situated
to the north of the region during this period, and a few
shortwaves will pivot around it and bring some shower chances.
Scattered showers have developed across the region this
afternoon. At this point, it does not look like any of the
showers will contain any thunder though it cannot be completely
ruled out. The showers are mostly focused on a secondary cold
front that is currently moving southeastward through northern
New york. This front should reach the Champlain Valley this
evening and it will be out of the region late tonight. It should
gradually weaken as it moves across as we lose diurnal heating
and as the dynamics gradually become less favorable.
Temperatures should be a little lower tomorrow night compared
last night. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Clouds
should remain in place tonight and boundary layer winds should
remain up, so radiational cooling will not be too efficient.
However, sustained cold air advection will be helping to lower
temperatures.

Diurnal heating will cause some showers to return on Wednesday but
they will be lighter and much narrower in coverage. Right now, they
look to be most focused over southern Vermont. Clouds should prevail
throughout most of the day but skies will begin to clear overnight.
Highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Winds Wednesday night look
to go calm and there will be a cool, dry airmass in place, but how
low temperatures go will depend on how much the clouds can clear
out. Currently have lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s but if skies
can clear quickly, temperatures may be able to fall far enough for
some patchy frost to develop in the coldest hollows of the
Adirondacks or Northeast Kingdom.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...PWATs fall to between 0.3 and 0.5 inches
on Thursday, or less than 10th percentile according to SPC sounding
climatology for Albany, NY. With embedded moisture-starved shortwave
energy within the broader upper level trough, as well as ongoing
cold air advection, expect highs 60-65 with a mix of sun and clouds
with northerly gusts 20-25 mph at times making it feel unseasonably
chilly. For reference, typical highs for late May are 69-75 across
our region. While a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out, have
maintained a dry forecast with PoPs below slight chance category
(less than 15 percent). Core of the anomalously cold H5 low moves
somewhere over northern New England overnight Thursday, but there
remains differences among models on the precise orientation. So
while it will be a chilly night for late May standards, questions
remain on how widespread the frost potential would be. If the
boundary layer decouples, it is certainly possible for some of our
colder hollows to fall into the mid and upper 30s. Those with
sensitive vegetation should keep abreast of the latest forecast and
potential for patchy frost overnight Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...We can look forward to a warming trend
Friday into the weekend. Friday and Saturday look to be gorgeous
days for outdoor activities. Highs on Friday look to be around 67-73
and Saturday 74-80 with plentiful sunshine and comfortable humidity.
While upper ridging builds in from the west, we do maintain a light
northerly flow below 850mb level so the air mass will be continental
polar in nature. Dew points will be in the 40s so the weather will
be gorgeous to be outdoors. Next chance for showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms does not arrive till Sunday and early next week.
But the weather pattern looks overall benign as we head into
meteorological summer, with no significant heat or severe weather
risks in the horizon. The chance for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms increases towards middle of next week when a more
organized shortwave trough crosses the region but forecast
uncertainty a week out is too high to be overly deterministic.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Current radar showing an area of light
showers with pockets of heavier activity with some IFR vis
occurring earlier at MSS. Thinking these showers will continue
to track eastward and impact many of our taf sites with MVFR
conditions thru 03z. A brief 20 to 30 min window of IFR cigs/vis
is possible at SLK associated with these showers thru 01z.
Also, as winds shift to the northwest and upslope flow develops
under plenty of moisture trapped below inversion from recent
rainfall, intervals of IFR cigs are possible thru 06z, with
likely IFR cigs btwn 06-10z at SLk before conditions improve.
Elsewhere, mostly VFR cigs/vis with intervals of MVFR cigs at
EFK/MPV and RUT developing by 06z and prevailing thru 10z,
before all sites go back to VFR by 12z. VFR continues on Weds
with northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Taber