Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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115 FXUS61 KBTV 310709 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 309 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After another chilly start this morning, we`ll see a steady warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure will keep the weather dry for the next several days. Our next best chance of rain doesn`t arrive until Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Friday...Our quiet weather will continue through the rest of this week as high pressure settles over the region. Mid/high clouds currently seen across much of central Quebec will spread southward through the day, bringing us at least a period of filtered sunshine today. Still, expect today`s highs to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Skies will clear again tonight, though it`s not looking quite as cool as the past couple of nights. Still, the usual cold prone locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will get down into the upper 30s, with low 40s to low 50s expected elsewhere. Then we`ll have a beautiful start to the weekend with abundant sunshine expected for Saturday. Highs will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 309 AM EDT Friday...Deep layer ridging continues to establish itself across the region Saturday night but the latest trends show a decreasing in the amplitude of the upper level ridge. This should allow for some moisture, in the form of cloud cover, to move over the region towards daybreak on Sunday. Given these trends, we have lowered highs slightly on Sunday and increased low temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night by a degree or two. The changes remain minor and any chances for showers will be held at bay given the subsidence associated with the upper level ridge. Overall, we`ve got a beautiful weekend on tap for the North Country. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Friday...The longwave pattern becomes more amplified on Monday which should help usher in some lower level moisture in addition to warmer temperatures. While subsidence should prevent any showers for the first half of the week, it`s looking increasingly likely that the influx of low level moisture will likely support scattered fair weather cumulus clouds in the later morning and afternoon hours. This may be just enough to stunt temperatures. The latest ensemble guidance has trended slightly cooler with highs in the mid 80s compared to the upper 80s they were showing this time yesterday as a result. Overall, the air mass is expected to be stagnant but we could see afternoon mixing each afternoon which could create some breezes but nothing likely over 15 mph. Rain chances will increase for the second half of the week but details remain very fuzzy as a closed low pressure system over the North Atlantic is expected to slowly break down which could delay the departure of the upper level ridge and thus delay rainfall. In the meantime, enjoy some partly to mostly sunny skies coupled with seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period, except for a short period of IFR/LIFR at KMPV due to patchy fog. Otherwise clear skies continue into the early morning hours before giving way to an increasing mid- level deck around 12-15 kft after 10Z and through much of the day. No precipitation is expected, and winds will be light overnight, trending northwesterly at 8-12kts with gusts up to 18-20kts possible after 14Z. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ030. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Hastings