698
FXUS61 KBTV 071415
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed upper low will bring showers to the region today, with some
embedded thunderstorms possible. Unsettled and cooler weather
continues through the weekend, with showers finally becoming less
numerous early next week and a warming temperature trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Friday...Only minor adjustments needed to the
forecast this morning, mainly to account for current convective
activity and sky cover trends. Showers and thunderstorms are
rapidly developing across portions of the northern Adirondacks
as of this hour, and the expectation is for additional activity
to develop downstream across the Champlain Valley over the next
2 hours, and the remainder of Vermont early this afternoon.
Surface based CAPE values remain forecast to top out around 1000
J/kg, and forecast soundings indicate about half of that will
go to DCAPE supporting the idea of some modest gusts upwards of
40 mph possible. PWATs are much lower today than yesterday so
the threat or heavy rain is lower as well, but areas which saw
rainfall over 1" in the past 24 hours will need to be monitored
as any thunderstorms today will still be capable of dropping
some moderate to briefly heavy rain.

Previous Discussion...A closed upper low centered over the
Great Lakes will finally begin to push eastward, bringing more
unsettled weather to round out the work week. Showers will
increase in areal coverage towards the afternoon with diurnal
instability, before waning again in the evening. Some embedded
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, especially across
northern portions of the forecast area as model soundings show
steep lapse rates and modest CAPE values between 100 to 500
J/kg. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s
across most of the region, although the broad valleys will climb
to near 80. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend, with
diurnally driven showers. Daytime highs will be a few degrees
cooler, with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Additional shortwave energy rounding base
of upper level trough still over our region will bring more chances
for showers on both Saturday night and Sunday. This far out it`s a
bit difficult to time the shortwaves passing through, but don`t
expect both of these periods to be total washouts. Models did trend
wetter for Sunday though, so did bump up pops accordingly. Low
temperatures on Saturday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
and high temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 60s to lower
70s. These daytime highs are a bit cool for early June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Weather will remain unsettled headed into
the long term portion of the forecast. Chance of showers will
continue for Sunday night and Monday with upper level trough finally
pulling away from our region headed into Monday night. From Tuesday
onward the GFS and ECMWF lack much continuity between the two
models, leading to lower confidence in the forecast. GFS depicts
another system impacting the north country on Wednesday while the
ECMWF does not have this system at all. At this time looks like
temperatures will trend back towards above normal levels towards the
end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty in the extended, and I`m
sure we`ll get a better idea as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday... VFR conditions prevail this morning, with
the exception of some fog and low stratus at KEFK and KMPV
bringing some local IFR/LIFR conditions this morning. Fog should
dissipate over the next couple of hours, with VFR prevailing by
14Z. Some pop up showers and some possible embedded
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, with some localized
MVFR/IFR possible within any heavier showers. Shower chances
will decrease after 00Z. Winds will generally be south to
southwest during the forecast period, with a few gusts possible
during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer