542
FXUS61 KBTV 091720
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
120 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to control the regions
weather through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal
showers each day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
Drier conditions return mid-week along with more seasonally warm
temperatures, but the threat for showers returns for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 959 AM EDT Sunday...Stratiform rainfall continues to
shift eastward this morning with breaks in cloud cover already
forming across northern New York. The 12Z RAP and HRRR show
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
with modest instability approaching 750 J.kg with mixed layer
shear around 20 knots. It wouldn`t be surprising to see some
stronger storms this afternoon capable of producing pea to dime
sized hail but probability for severe storms remain low. Brief
heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning will be possible this
afternoon so those with outdoor plans are urged to monitor the
weather closely.

Previous Discussion...Cool weather will prevail for today
through tomorrow, along with continued chances for showers as we
remain under upper level trough through the period. Upper level
trough will be over the region today, with strong vorticity
advection passing overhead this morning. This will bring fairly
widespread rain to the region, and it will be heavy at times.
Area of rain crosses the area from about 4 am till 4 pm. Part of
the forecast area most likely to see heavy rain is along a line
from Lake Placid to Montpelier to St Johnsbury and points south
of there. Rainfall totals in that area will be around a half to
three quarters of an inch. The rest of our area will have
totals closer to a quarter to four tenths of an inch of
rainfall. There will also be a chance for some thunderstorms
this afternoon, though surface based instability will be pretty
limited, there is a cold pool aloft associated with upper low
very near to the area. Soundings continue to show some steep low
level lapse rates and just a little CAPE, so we can`t rule out
thunder this afternoon. Small hail will be possible from any
stronger cores with pretty low freezing levels in place also.
Maximum temperatures today will range through the 60s. Looks
like we`ll have a bit of a break in the shower activity
overnight, though the region will remain cloudy. Minimum
temperatures will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s to mid
50s. Chance for showers will increase again during the day
Monday as more shortwave energy passes through base of upper
level trough which will still remain overhead. Surface based
instability will be even more limited on Monday, and have
continued to leave out mention of thunder for now. Maximum
temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 60s to lower
70s, coolest in Northern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...Conditions trend drier for Tuesday as
the closed upper low finally pushes to the east and high
pressure begins to build overhead. Some diurnally driven showers
may still be possible during the afternoon, especially across
the Northeast Kingdom which is closer to the periphery of the
departing upper low, although they will be less widespread than
previous days. Temperatures on Tuesday will seasonable, with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Any showers that
do develop during the afternoon will quickly taper off towards
the evening, with dry conditions overnight and seasonable
overnight low temperatures in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...The break in the unsettled pattern
can be expected for mid-week as high pressure builds overhead.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
second half of the week, which is a few degrees above normal for
this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will largely be
in the 50s to low 60s for most of next week. Chances for
precipitation return before the end of the week, generally
Thursday or Friday depending on the guidance. Despite the
chances for precipitation, showers look to be very diurnally
driven and scattered rather than a complete wash out. There is
still a lot of uncertainty as to how long the unsettled weather
lingers, with several of the deterministic global models showing
the precipitation through Saturday. Given the high uncertainty
at this point, continued with a chance to slight chance of
showers through Saturday before more dry weather makes a return.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Widespread showers have developed with
several lightning strikes detected near Massena. We will
continue to see shower and thunderstorm increase in coverage
over the next few hours with activity beginning to dwindle
around sunset. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through
this evening but we could see brief MVFR/IFR visibilities should
a thunderstorm move over a terminal. A mix of MVFR and IFR
stratus is expected overnight with a slow improvement back to
VFR Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Clay