658
FXUS61 KBTV 091143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
743 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to control the regions
weather through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal
showers each day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
Drier conditions return mid-week along with more seasonally warm
temperatures, but the threat for showers returns for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Sunday...Rain has moved into the area this
morning as expected, and has been heaviest across the most
southern part of our forecast area. Rain will be on going till
about noon, then become more showery as it lifts north and east
of our area. No big changes for this morning update, previous
discussion follows.

Cool weather will prevail for today through tomorrow, along
with continued chances for showers as we remain under upper
level trough through the period. Upper level trough will be over
the region today, with strong vorticity advection passing
overhead this morning. This will bring fairly widespread rain to
the region, and it will be heavy at times. Area of rain crosses
the area from about 4 am till 4 pm. Part of the forecast area
most likely to see heavy rain is along a line from Lake Placid
to Montpelier to St Johnsbury and points south of there.
Rainfall totals in that area will be around a half to three
quarters of an inch. The rest of our area will have totals
closer to a quarter to four tenths of an inch of rainfall. There
will also be a chance for some thunderstorms this afternoon,
though surface based instability will be pretty limited, there
is a cold pool aloft associated with upper low very near to the
area. Soundings continue to show some steep low level lapse
rates and just a little CAPE, so we can`t rule out thunder this
afternoon. Small hail will be possible from any stronger cores
with pretty low freezing levels in place also. Maximum
temperatures today will range through the 60s. Looks like we`ll
have a bit of a break in the shower activity overnight, though
the region will remain cloudy. Minimum temperatures will be
mild, ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Chance for showers
will increase again during the day Monday as more shortwave
energy passes through base of upper level trough which will
still remain overhead. Surface based instability will be even
more limited on Monday, and have continued to leave out mention
of thunder for now. Maximum temperatures on Monday will range
from the lower 60s to lower 70s, coolest in Northern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...Conditions trend drier for Tuesday as
the closed upper low finally pushes to the east and high
pressure begins to build overhead. Some diurnally driven showers
may still be possible during the afternoon, especially across
the Northeast Kingdom which is closer to the periphery of the
departing upper low, although they will be less widespread than
previous days. Temperatures on Tuesday will seasonable, with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Any showers that
do develop during the afternoon will quickly taper off towards
the evening, with dry conditions overnight and seasonable
overnight low temperatures in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...The break in the unsettled pattern
can be expected for mid-week as high pressure builds overhead.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
second half of the week, which is a few degrees above normal for
this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will largely be
in the 50s to low 60s for most of next week. Chances for
precipitation return before the end of the week, generally
Thursday or Friday depending on the guidance. Despite the
chances for precipitation, showers look to be very diurnally
driven and scattered rather than a complete wash out. There is
still a lot of uncertainty as to how long the unsettled weather
lingers, with several of the deterministic global models showing
the precipitation through Saturday. Given the high uncertainty
at this point, continued with a chance to slight chance of
showers through Saturday before more dry weather makes a return.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Rain has moved back into the area and will
prevail until about 17z, then become more showery. All sites
carrying rain prevailing at this time, then VCSH this afternoon.
Visibilities will be lowered to MVFR in heavier rain at times,
especially at RUT. Ceilings will lower with this bout of
precipitation, dropping to MVFR and occasional IFR levels around
the same time precipitation moves through. Ceilings should
begin to improve around 18Z, though rain and rain showers could
continue through 00z. Showers should die down from 00z-06z but
some of the lower ceilings will remain.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles