212
FXUS61 KBTV 071907
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will control the regions weather through
Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal showers each day, along
with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Drier conditions return mid-
week, but turn unsettled again towards Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Friday...As expected, the leading shortwave on the
edge of an incoming cold upper low produced numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the region today. The strongest cores developed
in the Champlain Valley where several reports of pea to dime/penny
size hail were received, and a few stations saw gusts upwards of
30-35 mph. Small footprints of heavy rain were noted as well, with
one prompting the issuance of an areal flood warning in the Enosburg
Falls area. Convective activity is already beginning to wane, with
the last strong cores shifting north of the international border.
Showers and isolated thunder will likely linger across the Northeast
Kingdom this evening, but conditions should trend calmer for the
overnight hours as the upper low centers overhead.

With the upper low centered over the region on Saturday, the threat
for additional diurnally driven showers exists, though should be
less in areal coverage and the threat for thunderstorms is much
lower, maybe 10%, not enough to explicitly mention in the forecast.
And much like today, showers will decrease in coverage after sunset
with the loss of surface heating but our next shortwave will be
arriving early Sunday morning so only a brief break in the action is
expected. More on that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Friday...Upper low circulation will continue to be
the focal point for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday as a
trough pinwheels around the low through the North Country. With
lower heights under the cold pool aloft, small hail with
thunderstorms will be a reasonable assumption. Surface temperatures
will be running on the cooler side of seasonal averages, generally
in the mid 60s to low 70s, so instability will be more limited with
primary forcing associated with the trough itself. Model most
unstable Cape does support a few moderate strength updrafts giving
further credence to small hail potential. QPF will be highly
variable, but synoptic forcing and PWATs favor totals capped around
0.5" outside any more strongly forced cells. Most likely wave timing
will have convection occurring early Sunday through mid Sunday
afternoon. Overnight, chances diminish with lows around seasonal
averages in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Friday...The probability of a stagnant longwave
pattern continues to be high for the beginning of next week with
ensembles supportive of continued rounds of showers under a cutoff
low circulation. Temperatures will remain around seasonal averages
under this pattern. After Tuesday, conditions become more favorable
for longwave movement with high pressure and a marked warming trend
becoming more probable. Deterministic models are more limited in the
amplitude of the ridge, but ensembles highlight a decent probability
of high temperatures increasing into the mid/upper 80s for the
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday... VFR conditions will largely prevail
through the period with afternoon/evening thunderstorms
providing brief periods of MVFR/IFR vsby. Overnight low clouds
are possible at KMPV/KSLK/KMSS, but confidence is low on how low
the ceilings are. MVFR is the forecast for now, but the
potential exists for IFR, especially at KSLK. VFR and isolated
to scattered showers return after sunrise Saturday. Winds will
generally be SSW less than 10kts through the period, with
local gusts up to 18kt at KBTV this afternoon and through the
period at KSLK.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Lahiff