Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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117 FXUS61 KBTV 071144 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 744 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A closed upper low will bring showers to the region today, with some embedded thunderstorms possible. Unsettled and cooler weather continues through the weekend, with showers finally becoming less numerous early next week and a warming temperature trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 731 AM EDT Friday...Fog and low stratus is currently hanging tough, especially across eastern Vermont, but over the next hour or so conditions should begin to improve. Other than some minor adjustments to reflect recent observations, with current temperatures ranging from the upper 50s into the 60s. Previous Discussion...A closed upper low centered over the Great Lakes will finally begin to push eastward, bringing more unsettled weather to round out the work week. Showers will increase in areal coverage towards the afternoon with diurnal instability, before waning again in the evening. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, especially across northern portions of the forecast area as model soundings show steep lapse rates and modest CAPE values between 100 to 500 J/kg. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s across most of the region, although the broad valleys will climb to near 80. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend, with diurnally driven showers. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Additional shortwave energy rounding base of upper level trough still over our region will bring more chances for showers on both Saturday night and Sunday. This far out it`s a bit difficult to time the shortwaves passing through, but don`t expect both of these periods to be total washouts. Models did trend wetter for Sunday though, so did bump up pops accordingly. Low temperatures on Saturday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and high temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. These daytime highs are a bit cool for early June. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Weather will remain unsettled headed into the long term portion of the forecast. Chance of showers will continue for Sunday night and Monday with upper level trough finally pulling away from our region headed into Monday night. From Tuesday onward the GFS and ECMWF lack much continuity between the two models, leading to lower confidence in the forecast. GFS depicts another system impacting the north country on Wednesday while the ECMWF does not have this system at all. At this time looks like temperatures will trend back towards above normal levels towards the end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty in the extended, and I`m sure we`ll get a better idea as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Friday... VFR conditions prevail this morning, with the exception of some fog and low stratus at KEFK and KMPV bringing some local IFR/LIFR conditions this morning. Fog should dissipate over the next couple of hours, with VFR prevailing by 14Z. Some pop up showers and some possible embedded thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, with some localized MVFR/IFR possible within any heavier showers. Shower chances will decrease after 00Z. Winds will generally be south to southwest during the forecast period, with a few gusts possible during the afternoon. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Kremer