906
FXUS61 KBTV 261632
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1232 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperature will warm back into the upper 70s to around 80
degrees with a plenty of sunshine for most locations. . The
next system will move into the region on Memorial Day bringing
breezy winds and widespread rain and chances for Thunderstorms
through early Tuesday. Unsettled weather continues through the
end of the week with temperatures trending back to seasonal
averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1226 PM EDT Sunday...No major updates were needed for the
forecast. Cumulus has been developing outside the broad valleys
and it should continue for much of the afternoon. Some high
clouds have also been moving through from the west but despite
these two layers of clouds, it should still be a partly to
mostly sunny day for everyone. There is a decent dew point
gradient cross the region, with dew points in southern Vermont
near 60 and dew points across northern Vermont and New York in
the low to mid 50s. This gradient should continue for the rest
of the day. Previous discussion follows...

Previous Discussion...Focus for impactful weather remains on a
stronger variety system expected to move into the North Country
on Memorial Day. A strong low level jet of 50-70kts at 850mb has
consistently been depicted accompanying the system. These
speeds will promote an influx of anomalously high PWATS greater
than 1.5". Temperatures in the 70s will also aid in
destabilizing low levels to support some embedded convection
ahead of the warm front and within the warm sector as well. As
such, 0.4-1.5" of QPF is expected with downslope areas of the
northern Adirondacks into northern Champlain Valley receiving as
little as 0.25". The bulk of the rain is expected to fall late
Monday evening through the overnight hours. Thunderstorms could
push localized totals higher resulting in a 5% chance of a flash
flooding. Also, winds could be locally strong on the northern
flanks of the Adirondacks and over/adjacent to Lake Champlain.
55kts present at the 925mb level, peaking Monday afternoon ahead
of rainfall, will support some stronger gusts to around 40mph.
If 925-850mb winds continue to presented above 60kts ahead of
rainfall, higher gusts may occur; we`ll be watching this
evolution over the next 12-24hrs closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be
diminishing Tuesday west to east with lingering rain in eastern
Vermont. With flow remaining southwesterly and overnight
temperatures remaining in the 60s, daytime highs Tuesday will
climb again into the mid/upper 70s to around 80 degrees; can`t
rule out a few thunderstorms, but supporting dynamics aloft are
not favorable for anything strong. Southwesterly flow and
moderately tight pressure gradient will support some continued
breezy conditions in northern New York; gusts ranging 20-30 mph
in general.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Weather models continue to disagree on the
speed at which the upper low pressure will shift showers out of our
forecast area this week. Wednesday currently has the best potential
for precipitation in the long term as most models swing the trough
through then, while Friday shows some evidence of relatively drier
conditions and even some partly to mostly sunny skies. Ensembles
show decreasing chances of measurable precipitation as we move
toward and into the weekend. Not a lot of instability to speak of
during this period with a capping inversion around 800mb on
Wednesday, so mostly showers in the forecast for now. Highs for the
second half of the week will be in the upper 50s to lower 70s, a
touch cooler than seasonal averages for late May here in northern
New York and Vermont. The coolest day looks to be Thursday, with
highs only reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s and a breezy
northwesterly wind. Low temperatures will also take a minor hit as
the low pressure begins to peel off. Nighttime lows will go from the
50s Tuesday night to the 40s to lower 50s Wednesday- Friday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Only MPV fogged in this morning since
skies cleared over the terminal with preceding light rain
overnight. LIFR conditions will continue until around 12Z before
dissipating in the 12-13Z time frame. Scattered low clouds will
remain for the remainder of the day with high clouds increasing
overnight ahead of an approaching storm system. Northerly winds
will shift southerly after 23Z with RUT picking up a little
downslope overnight. A strong LLjet will move into the region
after 06Z with LLWS ramping up west-east mainly after 09Z. Added
LLWS to MSS. MPV stands the best chances to see MVFR after 08Z
as southeast flow goes upslope over the terminal. Impacts to
aviators will increase after this TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Boyd