Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 232346
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
746 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will come to an end this evening as low pressure pulls away to
the north and east. High pressure brings fair and dry weather Sunday
into Tuesday as temperatures begin a welcomed moderating trend.
Chances for a few showers return by the middle to later portions of
next week with continued mild late March temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 734 PM EDT Saturday...Snow continues to gradually track
east, with the lower Connecticut River Valley getting clipped by
heavy snowfall. An upper trough will continue to drive snow
east out of the region, probably by about 10-11 PM. With that,
the rest of northern New York has been cleared from the Winter
Storm Warning, as well as Grand Isle, and western Franklin and
Chittenden of Vermont. We`ve been blown away by the sheer number
of reports that we have received. This may go down as one of our
most well-documented events in quite some time. Thanks all for
the reports! Previous discussion.

Snowfall will wind down this evening as low pressure tracks
across southeastern New England and exits quickly into the
Maritimes overnight. Additional moderate to locally heavy
snowfall rates will continue through 7-8 pm or so in the
eastern/southern Champlain Valley and 8-10 pm in central/eastern
VT before activity shuts off fairly quickly. Further west, the
event has largely ended with just some lingering light
snows/flurries in the Dacks through late afternoon. Please refer
to www.weather.gov/btv for the latest snowfall reports,
expected storm totals and current Winter Storm Warnings. Winds
will trend briefly gusty from the north/northwest overnight as
said system pulls away before abating toward morning as lows
bottom out mainly in the teens.

The remainder of the forecast is quite benign as ridging in the
surface to mid levels builds into the region with fair and dry
weather expected. It will remain seasonably cold on Sunday with
highs in the lower to mid 30s, then chilly again Sunday night with
decent radiative effects as the surface high builds atop the area -
single digits to teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure will dominate the
weather on Monday, bringing clear skies and relatively light
winds. 925 mb temperatures will be around 0 celsius so highs
should be in the mid 40s in the valleys and the 30s in the
mountains as efficient mixing should occur. The high will push
off to the east overnight and southerly flow will begin to
develop. This will keep temperatures warmer than the previous
nights, particularly in the the St. Lawrence Valley. Lows should
be in the 20s in most of the region. However, areas east of the
Greens should be able to decouple a bit more and temperatures
should be able to fall in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...Ridging will continue to dominate
through Tuesday before it looks to break down on Wednesday.
There should be a few rain showers on Wednesday but they
currently look to be pretty light and scattered. Snow levels
should be above the ridge tops so the precipitation should fall
as rain for everyone. A few ensemble members, particularly from
the GEFS, try to entrench some low-level cold air east of the
Greens and bring some light freezing rain to parts of the
Northeast Kingdom. While this is unlikely at this point, the
threat will continue to be watched. A coastal low looks to form
later in the week and it will attempt to move north into our
region and bring some steadier precipitation. However, there is
wide model spread on its track so kept any PoPs chance or less
during this time period. Guidance has been trending a bit drier
during this time frame with most members now keeping the storm
out to sea. Overall, temperatures look to be around and above
climatological normals for the time of year though there should
not be any record breaking temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...IFR/LIFR continues at KRUT, KMPV, and KEFK
with snow, and some 700-900 ft agl ceiling remain at KBTV and
KSLK. Anticipate gradual to rapid improvement beyond 02z, and
then most should trend VFR after 06z to 08z. North to northwest
winds, except northeast at KMSS, ranges widely between 5 and 17
knots, and is highest in the Champlain Valley at KPBG and KRUT.
These winds should generally continue through 03z, and then
gradually decline. Some LLWS will be possible as winds at 2000
ft agl remain at 40-45 knots at 2000 ft agl at KMPV and KRUT
while winds at the ground subside. Any LLWS should be gone about
12z. Surface winds should remain out of the northwest around 5
to 9 knots with perhaps a few stratocumulus clouds around
4000-7000 ft agl and some Lake Champlain effect west of KBTV.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ003-004-
     006>011-016>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes


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