863
FXUS61 KBUF 291741
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
141 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front crossing the Lower Lakes today, bringing scattered
showers mainly across the Southern Tier this afternoon. Drier
weather returns tonight into Thursday but it will remain on the cool
side. Dry weather continues Friday, with a warming trend as we head
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A compact shortwave embedded within the broader long wave trough,
which can clearly be seen on GOES-16 IR channel and co-located with
the showers and thunderstorms over OH/PA line, will pass to our
south today. Meanwhile...a secondary front dropping south through
the region in concert with this shortwave will aid in the
development of some more storms this afternoon. The HRRR and various
other hi-res guidance suggest that the greatest coverage of storms
will be found across the Souther Tier. Instability of 250 to 500
J/KG of MUCAPE and decent mid level lapse rates will support some
thunder within the stronger cells. The stronger cells will be
capable of producing brief heavy down pours.

Otherwise...with a cooling airmass to the tune of +3C to +5C aloft,
despite sunshine returning by this afternoon, highs will only manage
to climb into the 60s near 70F today.

Tonight...we should see skies quickly clear this evening close to
sunset. Good radiational cooling anticipated with some valley fog in
the typical locales. The main concern will be the chilly airmass in
place over the region. With light winds we might see some `frost` in
the colder wind sheltered spots by sunrise Thursday. Lows will range
from the 40s to the upper 30s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Gorgeous Weather Guaranteed As We Flip the Calendar to June...

I really don`t think that you can script the weather to be any
better than it will be during this period...as unseasonably cool
weather will give way to a welcomed warming trend that will include
wall to wall sunshine and temperatures that will return to above
normal levels.

An unusually deep trough for this time of year will exit the Lower
Great Lakes and New England Thursday night and Friday...while a
progressive shortwave ridge and its associated areas of sfc high
pressure will approach our region from the Upper Great Lakes. This
in concert with a dry airmass will assure that we will have starlit
skies Thursday night with plenty of sunshine on Friday.

The aforementioned mid level ridge will pass over our forecast area
Friday night and Saturday...while the area of high pressure will
settle over the Carolinas. This scenario will only enhance an
ongoing warm advection pattern that will support day to day warming.
By Saturday afternoon...we will be enjoying temperatures that will
be in the mid to upper 70s...a few degrees above normal.

Clouds will move across the region Saturday night...as the passing
ridge will give way to a fast moving shortwave that will be
approaching from the mid western states. While >90% of the region
should remain rainfree Saturday night...a late night shower cannot
be ruled out over the far western counties near Lake Erie...and
particularly across Chautauqua county.

The only other possible blemish on the weather could be the chilly
conditions at the open of this period. Light winds and mainly clear
skies Thursday night will allow the mercury to fall into the 40s...
with readings in the mid to upper 30s fully expected across the
Southern Tier and in the foothills to the Adirondacks. Those camping
Thursday night should plan accordingly...and yes...its not out of
the question that the colder valleys of the Srn Tier experience
patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is high confidence that we will experience ABOVE normal
temperatures through this period...and while there will be the
potential for some showers...the BULK of the time will be RAINFREE.

A zonal flow will be in place across the country on Sunday...while
sfc based ridging will be centered along the Southeast coast. This
will maintain a modest southwest flow of warm air into our region
with temperatures climbing to between 75 and 80. Again...while
mainly dry weather is expected...a shortwave passing just to our
south could support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms...
mainly across the Srn Tier.

A weak amplification in the otherwise zonal upper level flow will
direct a subtle ridge over the Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and
Monday. This will favor fair dry weather...although diurnally driven
shower activity/isolated tstorms will be possible across the Srn
Tier.

There is relatively low confidence in the overall pattern for
Tuesday...as the next shortwave could push a cold front through the
area. This would support scattered showers...and possibly some
thunderstorms...but will hold off on inserting the latter for now
due to the uncertainty expressed in the guidance. In any case...
Tuesday should be a warm and humid day with forecast max temps found
well in the 80s with Td`s ranging from 60 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR for most terminals this afternoon. Showers will continue across
the Southern Tier which will potentially produce MVFR to IFR Cigs
and lower Vsbys at times at KJHW.

Tonight...VFR with valley fog developing overnight which may impact
KJHW.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.


 &&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow will bring some modest chop to the lakes
through tonight into Thursday.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and then eventually
become light and variable Friday into the weekend as the surface
high crests over the Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow on the Lakes today and into Thursday morning,
with a modest chop along the south shorelines of the Lakes.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and eventually become
light and variable by Saturday morning as the surface high crests
over the Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR