213
FXUS61 KBUF 291329
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
929 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall over our area today, with afternoon
temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of the boundary
to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. While there may be
an afternoon shower or thunderstorm well south of Buffalo and
Rochester, most areas will be rain free. Temperatures this week
will average well above normal, especially Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It will remain unseasonably mild and rather humid across the bulk of
western New York today...while cooler more seasonable conditions
will be found across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Once an area
of moderately heavy showers exits Jefferson and Lewis counties this
morning...the vast majority of the region should be rainfree today.

As for the dynamics supporting the above...a strong mid level ridge
will be centered directly over our region today. This will largely
suppress any widespread shower activity over the western counties...
but a stalled frontal boundary over the Southern Tier could be
enough to help focus some widely separated showers and thunderstorm
activity over the Srn Tier and Upper Genesee valley within a
diurnally destabilized airmass this afternoon.

Max temps today will range from the mid 50s across the Thousand
Islands region to near 80 for portions of the Srn Tier. For the
latter...enjoy.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great
Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and
southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift
generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake
Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to
our northwest where showers and storms associated with the
approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast
area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite
unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin
average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized
amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger
convection. Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn...
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move east of the area Tuesday night, causing
showers to diminish across the North Country Tuesday evening.
Then, mostly dry weather is expected across western New York
overnight.

Surface high pressure will then push across the region Wednesday
through Thursday supporting dry weather for the middle portion of
this week. Temperatures will remain above normal for early May, with
highs in the 70s each day and cooler conditions along the shorelines
of the Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing northeast
across the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario, Canada Thursday night.
While surface high pressure will lie across the region Thursday
night into Friday, the aforementioned low pressure will support a
warm front to sweep north across the Great Lakes. While this frontal
passage may bring a few showers to the region, the forecast area
will primarily remain dry Thursday night through Friday.

As this front continues to exit northeast, its associated surface
cold front will cross from west to east across the Great Lakes
Friday night through Saturday night. There continues to remain some
uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held PoPs to just a
chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes
Sunday, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west
to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place today...although localized IFR to
MVFR cigs will stay in place until about 15z from KBUF and KIAG to
KROC. The only fly in the ointment for today will be widely
separated thunderstorms over parts of the western Southern Tier and
Upper Genesee valley during the peak heating of the day.

Showers will approach the area from the west tonight with increasing
chances for rain and cigs lowering to 3-4k feet from west to east
late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR with showers becoming
likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along
the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario today where
Small Craft headlines are in place. Winds will diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout
the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few
days.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Thomas