Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 151035
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge across the region today bringing cool but
drier weather for much of the area through Saturday. A cold front
will move through Saturday night, which will be followed by colder
weather along with some rain or snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front is slowly oozing through the region with some showers
near this boundary across the Southern Tier. There is also some fog
to contend with along the shores of Lake Erie from Ripley to
Buffalo. We could see some reduced visibilities down to a mile this
morning, especially if traveling on the I-90.

Low pressure will further depart east away from eastern Great Lakes
and then be found near Boston by mid-morning. With its departure we
will see most shower activity all but come to an end. The lone
exception will be across the North Country and St. Lawrence Valley.
A weak shortwave will re-introduce a few showers there by late this
afternoon and evening. Nothing of significance but couldn`t go with
a completely dry forecast(low end chances 30% or less).

Otherwise...a wealth of clouds will be found across much of the
Lower Lakes under northerly upslope flow. Subsidence from the
incoming high and drier air will bring about mainly dry weather for
much of the region. It will be cooler today with highs in the 40s to
low 50s.

Tonight...dry quiet weather and cooler with lows found in the 30s
for most locales across the CWA.

Saturday...surface high pressure will depart off to our east but
will likely maintain dry weather ahead of a cold front approaching
the eastern Great Lakes. High will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A vigorous lead shortwave will dive southeast into the base of
the digging main upper level trough Saturday night, while
associated surface low pressure moves eastward to just south of
James Bay. This will shove a strong trailing cold front through
western and northcentral NY overnight, bringing some measurable
precipitation to the region. This will be mainly in the liquid
form, however some wet snow will be possible across the higher
terrain with perhaps a slushy coating of snow possible on
elevated and grassy surfaces. Basin average rainfall will be
around a tenth of an inch, with up to 0.20" across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill/western Dacks. This
boundary will also open the door to an initial batch of colder
air, that will only deepen through the day Sunday into Sunday
night with the airmass eventually taking on a much more winter-
like feel. Plenty of lingering moisture and lift aloft will keep
some showers going through our St. Patrick`s Day, most numerous
through the first half of the day. Warming mid-March near-
surface temperatures will allow even most higher terrain areas
to go over to plain rain by late morning, although much colder
air will be right off the deck, so may see some wet flakes mixed
in even with temps above freezing. Precipitation should become
lighter and more scattered in nature Sunday afternoon as mid
level support slides east of the area. Another component will be
some windy conditions, with westerly gusts of 30-35 mph.
Putting it all together, it will be a chilly and potentially
damp day to be outside for any festivities. Sunday`s temps will
be much cooler, with daytime highs mainly mid to upper 30s
higher terrain and low to mid 40s elsewhere, a bit below average
for this time of year.

Airmass off the deck will continue to grow progressively cooler
Sunday night, with lake effect snow showers becoming increasingly
likely east of the Lakes during the second half of the night.
Westerly winds will remain elevated overnight also as the next cold
front approaches from the northwest. Lows Sunday night will fall
back into the mid and upper 20s across the majority of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deep upper level trough will swing across the eastern US early
next week. Cooler air will move into the eastern Great Lakes region
and bring periods of below normal temperatures and snow showers
especially downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

A secondary cold front will move across the region Monday. Ongoing
lake enhanced snow showers early Monday will likely blossom and
become cellular through Monday afternoon. Northwest flow will direct
lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lakes with snow showers
continuing Monday night when the core of the coldest air (-12C at
850mb) is overhead. Surface high pressure will build into western NY
Tuesday with snow showers weakening but still around through the
afternoon. Accumulating snow is possible Monday through Tuesday
especially at night and across the higher terrain. High temperatures
will reach the mid to upper 30s across the lower elevations Monday
and Tuesday.

The region will remain on the backside of an upper level trough
Wednesday through Thursday. Initially, warm air advection will bump
temperatures back to near normal (upper 30s to mid 40s) Wednesday
and Thursday. Uncertainty grows mid-week with the potential for one
or multiple shortwave troughs to move near the region. A low chance
of precipitation will continue through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering showers and low cloudiness will produce MVFR-IFR conditons
across area terminals. There will also be some pockets of fog (KIAG)
in some areas this morning. A gradual improvement will occur by this
afternoon. This as drier air begins to arrive and surface high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Tonight...surface high pressure will bring VFR conditions to all
area TAF sites.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered rain or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds will subside as high pressure builds into the region
today. There may still be some light to modest chop on the lakes but
wave action will greatly lessen by this afternoon. Light winds and
wave action will persist into Saturday before the next chance of
small craft conditions arrives on Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR


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