311
FXUS61 KBUF 210651
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid-summer warmth will be upon the Lower Lakes today with well above
normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels. With the mild
conditions and humidity today it will also support some showers and
thunderstorm well inland from the lakes. A greater threat for
showers and storms arrives Wednesday as a cold front approaches the
region. Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected Thursday
into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend. Unsettle weather
then makes a return on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All eyes are focused on a convectively enhanced shortwave tracking
across Lake Huron overnight. Hi-res guidance largely keep most of
the showers and convection north of Lake Ontario. That said...an
isolated shower or storm still can`t be ruled out as it draws closer
and then begins to pass to the north this morning.

Otherwise...mid-summer warmth will be upon us today with
temperatures more typical of July than late May. Highs today will
once again soar into the mid to upper 80s. We even potentially could
hit the 90F in a few locales, especially in the Genesee Valley.
There will also be some showers and storms to contend with as the
shortwave passes to our north by this afternoon. The best shot to
see a shower or storm will be found well inland from the cooler
stable lakes, especially from the Genesee Valley northeast across
the Finger Lakes into the North Country.

Tonight...with the loss of daytime heating most showers and storms
will fall apart with dry weather expected across the region. Muggy
(dwpts in the 60s) and mild night with mercury reading found in the
mid to upper 60s by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad based upper level trough spread across the western half of
the CONUS Tuesday night, will allow for a few shortwaves to ripple
through. Well to the north of New York, a remnant convective
shortwave trough will continue to pass east across northern Ontario
and Quebec. With its passage the lingering showers and
thunderstorms, now across the eastern portions of the North Country
will continue to diminish shortly after sunset due to the lack of
diurnal heating. Meanwhile to the west, the next potent convective
shortwave trough over Minnesota will continue to lift north, as a
result this will support surface low pressure over northern
Minnesota to continue to lift northeastward into southwestern
Ontario. Extending southward from this low is a cold front lying
across Lake Michigan towards the southern Mississippi Valley.
Provided this set up, warm moist air will continue to advect into
the area Tuesday night creating some muggy sleeping conditions with
lows ranging in the 60s.

Additionally, with the cold front to the west of the area Wednesday
morning, the day will start off dry ahead of its prefrontal trough.
As the front and prefrontal trough marches eastward Wednesday, there
is an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity by Wednesday
afternoon and evening. With the afternoon/evening arrival time, this
will support a few stronger storms as plenty of instability and
ample moisture. One of the saving graces and hindering the severity
of the storms is the later arrival of the stronger winds, thusly
limiting the shear. With all of this being said, a few gusty winds
are not out of question since there is bountiful instability and
moisture. In line with this thinking, the Storm Prediction Center
continues to support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday. Also, given the inch and a half PWAT values some heavy
downpours will also be possible, however ample storm motion should
keep the activity moving and limit flooding to a minimum. Similar to
Tuesday, southwest winds will transport warm moist air into the
region Wednesday and support another day of temperatures ranging in
the 80s, though Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer.

The cold front and the next round of showers will then cross the
area Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday. Due to the
timing of the frontal passage and the lack of diurnal heating,
severe chances are diminished. For the later half of Thursday, dry
air will begin to advect into the region drying out conditions from
west to east, where the area will be completely dry by Thursday
night. With the passage of the front Wednesday night into Thursday,
expect temperatures to cool in the wake of the front by nearly 10
degrees. Highs Thursday will rand in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over our region will begin the period dry with fair
weather. Still some uncertainty when the next chance for showers
will arrive. A stationary boundary well to our south will lift
northward as a warm front through OH/PA...but moisture and showers
with this feature may just stay to our south Saturday - Saturday
night.

An area of deepening low pressure cutting through the western Great
Lakes Sunday will bring this warm front to our south up across our
region for Sunday with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Lingering boundaries and as the surface low draws
closer to our region Monday will continue chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Comfortable dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s Friday and Saturday
will become a bit higher with the warm front Sunday and Monday.
Dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60F will give a touch of humidity
to the air for the end of the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is a low end chance of a shower or storm as a convectively
enhanced shortwave approaches and then begins to pass to our north
overnight into this morning. If a shower or storm did make it into
our region tied to the shortwave it would only briefly impact KIAG or
KROC. Otherwise...most terminals will continue to see VFR.

VFR and light winds will continue today, there will be some
afternoon and evening storms across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes,
and then northeast into the North Country.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario overnight. There will also be a low end chance of a shower
or thunderstorm as a weak wave approaches and then begins to pass to
the north of Lake Ontario.

South winds develop and pick up a bit today as a cold front to our
west begins to approach the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will
remain below small craft levels. Low pressure will sends a cold
front into the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday but winds and waves
look like it will remain below small craft conditions for the rest of
the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR