Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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585 FXUS61 KBUF 280220 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1020 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass by to our north with chances for showers and thunderstorms diminishing overnight following the passage of a cold front. Unsettled weather will persist on Tuesday then a drying trend and cooler conditions will take hold for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/... Radar shows some lingering thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario, with these about to exit east of the forecast area during the next couple hours. Until then, moderately strong winds aloft could allow for some brief gusty winds and heavy downpours with these storms. Elsewhere, there will be some lingering showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm overnight. It`s still quite windy across the Niagara Frontier and near the Lake Erie shoreline. The 00Z Buffalo sounding shows 900 mb winds of 50 knots, with at least a portion of these mixing to the surface resulting in gusts of 35 to 40 mph this evening. Winds will continue to gradually drop off overnight here as the winds aloft diminish. Tuesday...A robust shortwave with the cyclonic flow will rotate across the region. This will be accompanied by the next surge of deeper moisture. Again showers and some thunderstorms will be possible...especially during the midday and afternoon hours. Highs on Tuesday will `likely` peak in the 60s to near 70F. It will also be quiet breezy with westerly winds gusting up to 35 mph at times. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A potent trough and then a cold front will track across the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. As the trough tracks across the area, showers will continue through the first half of the night, before becoming less organized. Forcing from the trough will provide the main focus for showers during the evening and early overnight, while the cold front will move through and continue the potential for showers. Have included sChc of thunder this update as there could be just enough lingering instability early in the night to support a few isolated thunderstorms, though this threat should quickly wane through the night with the absence of diurnal heating. Overall synoptic moisture ahead of the trough will be generally low with PWATs of around an inch, and lowering some to around three quarters of an inch after it crosses the area. With these lower moisture values and weaker forcing from the cold front, showers that do linger into the morning on Wednesday will be less organized. Most areas can expect less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall, with the greatest amounts east of Lake Ontario where forcing and moisture will be slightly better. Temperatures on the night will be in the upper 40s for the higher terrain to the low 50s for the lower elevations. Wednesday, showers will linger across the area, with the best chance for showers southeast of Lake Ontario toward the NY/PA border. Showers will taper off and track out of the area from northwest to southeast. By the afternoon, showers should be limited to a general area from the NY/PA border, to the Finger Lakes & to the western ADKs. Northwest flow over the region will help keep temperatures below normal, with highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively. Wednesday night, earlier showers should be out of the area, minus a few sprinkles for the Southern Tier and for areas well southeast of Lake Ontario. Clearing skies from northwest to southeast, along with a mostly northerly flow will bring one of the cooler nights the area has seen in a while with overnight lows dropping to the low to upper 40s. The region will remain situated under broad, positively tilted upper level troughing centered over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. To the west, a strong, progressive ridge of high pressure will be building eastward over the Great Lakes region. The surface high from this feature will "undercut" the initial upper level troughing to a degree, so while it should be another day of cooler than normal weather, it will be drier across the region compared to Wednesday. There remains a very low chance (15-20%) chance of showers across portions of the North Country Thursday afternoon, which will be further removed from the stabilizing effects of the high to the west. Cool, dry and tranquil weather then expected Thursday night as the upper level trough axis quickly pivots away from the eastern Great Lakes and into New England. Temps will again fall back into the 40s overnight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large area of high pressure and stout ridge will build east into the region during the long term period. The surface high and large ridge will be centered over the region from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, ensuring fair dry weather. There are some timing issues with the next incoming trough and how quickly the large ridge weakens and/or moves east. Due to this, some guidance is bringing in the potential for showers starting on Sunday morning, but with the lack of certainty, left at most sChc POPs. Rain chances increase some on Monday as another weak shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region on the lee side of the building ridge. Temperatures for the period will start out near normal values in the upper 60s and low 70s Friday, though warm to around 5-10 degrees above normal by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front push east of the area this evening, with a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms. Increasing low moisture behind the cold front will result in MVFR and in some cases IFR cigs later tonight. However most of the night will be rain free. On Tuesday a shortwave will bring increasing showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Mainly MVFR flight conditions during the day. Outlook... Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of showers. Thursday through Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate southwest winds will continue into tonight and become westerly late. Small craft headlines in place on the lakes through Tuesday. Nudged up wind forecast overnight based on the latest obs and extended the Buffalo Harbor small craft headlines. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ007. Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel SHORT TERM...PP/SW LONG TERM...PP/SW AVIATION...AR/Apffel MARINE...AR/Apffel/RSH