615
FXUS61 KBUF 082331
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
731 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies will continue through the remainder of Tuesday with
light rain showers across the Finger Lakes region. Drier weather
expected Wednesday ahead of the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows cloud skies across much of western
and north central NY with lingering low-level moisture behind
yesterday`s frontal passage. A few light rain showers remain across
the Finger Lakes region early this afternoon. Latest
observations highlight broad convergence in southern Allegany Co
closer to the stalled frontal boundary to our south that could
initiate a storm later this afternoon, but otherwise conditions
should remain dry as high pressure continues to slide in from
the west. Wednesday looks to start off dry, but that high
pressure will quickly slide off to the east as a shortwave
passes across the Ohio Valley eastward the Mid- Atlantic. The
bulk of the moisture with this system will remain well to the
south of the CWA, but a few isolated showers will be possible
(15-25%) Wednesday afternoon with the troughing pattern
extending north through the Great Lakes to a mid-level low in
Ontario. Lake breeze circulations could initiate a few isolated
storms southeast of Lake Erie, but latest CAMs remain relatively
quiet through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Headed into Wednesday night, a 500mb low slowly traversing eastward
just north of the Great Lakes will bring the chance for showers and
thunderstorms to western NY through early Thursday. Greatest
precipitation coverage will be closer to the better forcing with the
upper low from the Niagara Frontier across Lake Ontario and over
towards the north country. MUCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg will be
available, however, flow appears to generally be weak limiting
severe potential at this time. Headed towards daybreak Thursday,
effective shear with mostly unidirectional flow looks to be
maximized near 30 kt in north-central NY so this area does highlight
the best chance for a stronger storm to develop with gusty outflow
winds.

Chance (25-35%) of showers and storms will remaining throughout much
of the day as the upper low slowly propagates to the northeast
and potentially leads to another weak shortwave passage across
the lower Great Lakes. High pressure briefly slides in Thursday
night with a relatively short period of drier weather headed
into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NAEFS ensemble mean 500-hpa shows weak ridging across the region
Friday through Saturday. Surface high pressure should move into the
region Friday through Friday night and dry weather is anticipated. A
mid-level trough across the Northern Plains/Mid-West will slowly
approach the region through the weekend. An associated surface low
will likely move across the Upper Great Lakes while a warm front
ushers in warmer air and moisture and the potential for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday. The speed of the next airmass
building into the region is uncertain which leads to low to medium
chances of showers and thunderstorms into the next work week.

Above average temperatures are anticipated this weekend which could
lead to uncomfortable heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS, MVFR based clouds over WNY will continue to thin
from the lakes to the southern Genesee Valley this evening. Plenty
of low level moisture will remain though, with some patches of low
end VFR clouds through the night, and where clearing develops patchy
fog will become possible, especially for the KJHW and KART
airfields.

Cloud bases tomorrow will rise with the increasing boundary layer
depth. While VFR flight conditions with a light wind will prevail
through much of the day, building instability within this moist
airmass will yield afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Activity,
isolated through much of the afternoon and initially favoring inland
of Lake Erie (KJHW) will become more in numbers late in the TAF
cycle and through tomorrow evening to now include KIAG and KBUF as a
prefrontal trough ahead of a cold front draws near far WNY.

Outlook...

Wednesday night into Thursday...A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes
Erie and Ontario today and then expected to continue through
the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected to pass through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning that could lead to gusty winds and choppy
conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brothers
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Brothers