977
FXUS61 KBUF 141432
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1032 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue across the area through Wednesday
with period of showers and a few thunderstorms as a frontal boundary
slowly crosses the region. After this, a weak high pressure ridge
will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of a few
afternoon showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Frontal boundary remains across nearby southern Ontario late this
morning, with a band of showers stretching from the north shore of
Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley. Meanwhile, most of
Western and Central NY is mostly sunny late this morning, and the
dry weather will continue for a few more hours.

The frontal boundary will remain north of the region this morning
then start to push into the region this afternoon. Ribbon a deep
moisture will make its way into the region within the warm
sector ahead of the southward moving boundary blossoming showers and
embedded thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be from the
Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes and Central NY this
afternoon and evening, with lower coverage close to the lakes where
stable lake shadows will reduce the chance of deep moist convection.
Precipitable water values nearing 1.25" not too far above
climatological normals, but given the relative small shear vectors
and an enhanced theta-e environment the potential exists for
repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with any convective
activity. Although severe weather is not expected, could see some
small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection.

The frontal boundary will continue to drift slowly to the south
tonight. Precipitation chances, though gradually lowering will
continue through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A weak low pressure system will pass by to our south across the Mid
Atlantic region on Wednesday. While the best forcing mid and upper
level forcing remains to our south, a southwest to northeast
oriented stationary surface boundary will bisect our area with a low
level northeasterly flow to the north and a moist southeasterly
Atlantic flow to the south of the boundary. This feature will serve
as the focal point for the likelihood of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms across our area, with the most persistent activity
along and near the surface boundary. PWATs near 1.25" will bring the
potential for a few heavier downpours within any stronger convection
that develops. Stationary boundary will linger into Wednesday night
and Thursday, however shower coverage and intensity will lessen as
deeper mid and upper level moisture shifts east of the area. This
will lead to Chc PoPs Wednesday evening lowering to SChc during the
second half of Wednesday night. Otherwise, despite the cloud cover
and rain, temperatures will be seasonable on Wednesday with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

Boundary will start to drift southeast on Thursday as surface high
pressure tries to nose in across the area from the northwest.
However, a lingering low level moist Atlantic flow combined with
diurnal heating will lead to increasing chances for showers once
again, mainly from the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
northeast to the eastern Lake Ontario region in closer proximity to
the lingering boundary. Instability owed to daytime heating may be
enough to trigger a few more afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms. High pressure will then nose in across western and
northcentral NY, bringing a brief period of dry weather Thursday
night. Should gain a at least a few degrees on high temperatures for
Thursday with at least some breaks in the thicker overcast expected
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s area wide, with a few mid 70s
possible for areas that see more in the way of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging surface and aloft will slowly slide east into New England on
Friday. This should allow mainly dry weather to continue for much of
the day before the next trough approaches from the western Great
Lakes bringing the next chance for showers and a few scattered
thunderstorms later in the day, mainly across western NY.

Otherwise, the progressive flow aloft will continue to allow
impulses and shortwaves to quickly ripple from west to east across
the area, maintaining chances for showers and thunderstorms this
period, with the best chances for showers and even a rumble of
thunder Friday night and Saturday with a trough passage. Will
continue with continuity, keeping Lkly PoPs during this timeframe.

Model consensus then diverges some as to how quickly the trough
exits east of our region. A faster eastward progression would bring
drier conditions for the second half of the weekend into the start
of the new work week, however if the trough slows, some showers and
scattered thunderstorms could linger into Sunday and possibly even
Monday. With this in mind will have Chc PoPs in for both days at
this point.

Temperatures will be near to a bit above average during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather and VFR conditions this morning as a frontal boundary
remains nearly stationary across southern Ontario. Some showers will
linger close to the boundary, but this activity should remain north
of KART. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase with
instability this afternoon. Mainly VFR with localized IFR in heavier
showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tonight...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with
lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A light southerly flow will continue this morning ahead of a
cold front. The cold front will sink south across the lower
Great Lakes this afternoon with winds become more variable on
the lakes, before becoming northeast behind the front Wednesday.
These northeast winds do pick up late Wednesday, but should
stay below 15 knots with some choppy contains developing,
especially on the west end of Lake Ontario. The flow turns
southerly by Friday and remains from that direction through the
weekend with conditons remain under headline criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...TMA