256
FXUS65 KBYZ 051755
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1155 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

UPDATE...

The High Wind Warning for the following areas have been canceled:
Wheatland County, Melville Foothills and Northern Sweetgrass.
Gusty winds of 40-50 mph will continue through the afternoon and
decrease after sunset. TS

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...

A brief reprieve in the gusty winds for much of the area early
this morning. They are expected to pick up again by mid-morning,
especially out east in Custer, Fallon, and Carter counties where a
High Wind Warning goes into effect at 6am MDT and ends 6pm MDT
tonight. The warning is for wind gusts up to 60mph with sustained
winds between 25-35 mph. The NBMs latest output for mean max wind
gust for Miles City and Baker is around 57mph today, with a
60-80% probability of gusts greater than 55mph for both locations.

The High Wind Warnings in the west are
still in effect until noon MDT today, with gusts up to 65mph.

There is a low chance for precipitation this morning out east,
with a wave of energy pushing through. The best chance for
precipitation is in northern Powder River County and most of
Carter County where the probability for precipitation is 15-30%.
As for the rest of the forecast area, dry and warm conditions are
expected. High temperatures in the 70s today and 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the 40s to low 50s.

Matos

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Thursday night thru Saturday, we will be under a WNW flow aloft
with above normal heights. The combination of troffing off the CA
coast and a weak low near Baja will result in a monsoon-like
increase in moisture underneath the western CONUS ridge...to the
point that pwats over WA/OR/ID/WY will be 1-3 standard deviations
above normal. This will lead to at least a slight (20%) chance of
diurnal weak thunderstorms over our southern mountains &
foothills. However, latest models have trended a bit more
confluent with the 500mb flow over MT, courtesy of troffing from
northern AB/SK to the great lakes. This trend is drier for us as
it keeps the deeper moisture suppressed, and it is also a bit
cooler as we bring in backdooring NE-E winds. The latest forecast
is thus slightly cooler and drier in our region on these days.

Plenty of model spread exists Sunday & Monday, with regard to
aforementioned troffing to our northeast and a weak Pacific
shortwave. It is possible that our precip chances remain somewhat
suppressed, or we could be looking at a Pacific trof passage and
one or two days of at least a 30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Even with the uncertainty, the late Sunday through
Monday period is the favored one for potential QPF among the
ensembles. There is consensus for building heights and dry
conditions by next Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal but not in an extreme sense.
Look for upper 70s to mid 80s Friday, then mid 70s to lower 80s
Saturday-Monday. Next Tuesday should see temps back into the 80s.
Cannot rule out our first taste of 90F by the middle of next week
if current model trends hold.

As we mentioned yesterday, we may evolve into a pattern more
favorable for severe weather toward the end of next week, perhaps
beginning around the 13th or 14th, as troffing sets up over the
PacNW and a ridge for the northern plains.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

Strong W-NW will continue today, with gusts of 40-50 knots along
the western foothills (K6S0-KHWQ) and in far southeast MT (KMLS-
KBHK-K97M). Look for 25-40 knot gusts elsewhere. Strongest winds
will be after sunrise. Through around 14z, before mixed winds
reach the surface, LLWS is expected at KBIL & KMLS. Winds will
subside across the region tonight. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
under building high pressure aloft. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 048/082 054/083 054/079 054/079 055/080 056/084
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    21/U
LVM 076 045/085 052/084 050/081 051/078 051/078 052/082
    0/N 00/U    01/U    01/U    13/T    44/T    21/U
HDN 075 045/081 052/083 052/080 053/081 053/080 054/084
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    21/U
MLS 071 045/079 050/083 052/076 049/077 052/079 054/083
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/T    21/U
4BQ 071 047/079 052/085 052/079 051/079 052/080 055/082
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    21/U
BHK 071 043/076 048/081 048/074 045/074 047/077 051/081
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    21/U
SHR 073 045/080 053/082 052/078 051/077 051/077 051/080
    0/N 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    23/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM MDT this
 evening FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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