Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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518 FXUS62 KCAE 030008 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 808 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week. This will support isolated to scattered convection mainly in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front will approach the region late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe weather. Temperatures will be near or above normal through the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Satellite imagery shows a embedded short wave moving into the northern Midlands with a few thunderstorms developing in the Union, York and Chester County area moving eastward with additional showers extending into northern Aiken County. Convection continues to fight sunset and loss of heating however with the dynamics expect the showers to continue over the next couple of hours as they move to the northeast. Rainfall amounts will generally be light as convection is fairly low topped with most struggling to reach 20 kft. By midnight expect most of the convection to have dissipated with a few showers remaining where boundaries collide. Clouds will gradually diminish during the early morning hours however most locations will remain partly to mostly cloudy through daybreak. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure offshore will promote weak southerly flow across the region. As an upper trough moves offshore through the early portion of the day, the deeper moisture appears to shift east of the forecast area. However PWAT values should still be around 1.5 inches supporting afternoon convection. Southerly or SE low level flow along the coast will allow a sea-breeze boundary to move inland through the day which may serve as the trigger for convection in eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime heating will allow the airmass to become conditionally unstable with sbCAPE values likely between 750 to 1500 J/kg. The threat of severe weather is low however. CAPE profiles are tall and skinny with low LI values indicating limited updraft strength. Warm air aloft moves into the area during the evening working to suppress convection along with loss of heating. Lows near normal values in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level ridging will be over the region from Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will work to induce a mid-level capping inversion hindering convective development. Convection on Tuesday should remain isolated to widely scattered despite a seasonal warm, moist airmass. Global ensemble mean 500mb heights flatten the ridge mid-week as an upper trough digs into the Upper Midwest. SW flow over the Southeast strengthens in response pushing PWAT values above 1.5 inches to possibly near 2 inches. At the surface, a cold front is expected to drop from the Ohio Valley southwest into the Mississippi valley on Thursday. Warm, moist advection ahead of the front will increase rainfall chances mid to late week when the front moves through the area. Above normal moisture, increased shear and moderate instability with shortwave activity poses some risk for severe weather from Wednesday to Friday. Drier air will move into the region behind the front for the end of the long term, but temperatures won`t cool much with highs still around normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A few showers continue this evening and may move over the Columbia terminals. Radar observations as of 23z show any showers remain light and thunder is not expected so no operational impacts expected at the terminals as a result of these showers. Winds out of the SSE between 5 and 10 knots decreasing overnight then shifting out of the SSW Monday around 5 knots. Ceilings lowering Monday but high confidence in remaining VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$